Machida VS Mousasi Part 2

I guess the first time I read about Gegard Mousasi (pronounced Gay'-guard Moo-Saw'-see) was after he upset fan favorite Denis Kang in the Dream 2008 Middleweight Grand Prix tournament.  At the time, Kang was one of those guys that many expected to be a world champion some day.  He had insane experience and wins over some of the best guys in the sport.  By contrast, the 23 year old Gegard had kept busy since turning pro at the tender age of 18, but his biggest win had come over Hector Lombard, and he had already suffered two defeats--both by armbar.

Though Kang was coming off a knockout loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama, most expected him to get back on the winning track against Mousasi.  Indeed, he was only a few fights removed from a 23 fight winning streak that saw him go undefeated for more than 3 years.  During that streak, he defeated one of the two men to have beaten Mousasi--Akihiro Gono.  So again, most of us expected Kang to handle the young Armenian-born fighter who trained in the Netherlands.

And in the first minute of their fight, it looked like he was going to.  They exchanged a few punches, which Kang seemed to get the better of, and then Kang shot for a takedown, got it, and immediately started working a kimura on Mousasi's right arm.  But Mousasi seemed unworried about the armlock, unworried that he was on his back and that one of the best fighters in the business was on top of him.  He simply went to work, smacking Kang's head with left-handed punches and driving his right knee into the exposed left side of Kang's face over and over again.  Most of the knees only grazed Kang, but they got his attention.  After a minute and a half of them, Kang released the kimura and tried to land some ground-n-pound.  This allowed Mousasi to free himself from Kang's half guard.  As Kang stood to get leverage on some of his punches, he learned what many other would learn in the future:

Gegard Mousasi has long legs.  And even from his back, he will kick you in the face.  Mousasi launched one upkick after another.  These were like horse kicks.  Kang didn't like them at all.  To get past them, he dropped into Mousasi's open guard and threw a reckless right hand at Mousasi's face.  The punch missed, and Mousasi snatched the arm and simultaneously wrapped his legs around Kang's neck.  The move Mousasi had just slapped onto Kang was called a triangle choke, and Kang wasn't getting out of it.  Mousasi squeezed tight.  Seconds later, Kang tapped.

Here is the YouTube video of their fight.

Mousasi's next fight was against Dong Sik Yoon, who had defeated veteran Shungo Oyama in the quarterfinals.  Yoon was probably best known in the states as having lost to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson a couple years earlier, but when he faced Mousasi, he was on a four fight win streak against good competition.  Though Mousasi would defeat him by unanimous decision, Yoon would later earn a victory over future Strikeforce champion and current UFC contender, Tarec Saffiedine--so Yoon was no bum.

Beating Yoon put Mousasi in the tournament finals held a few months later.  To win, he would need to defeat not one, but two fighters in the same night.  And first up was not just any fighter.  It was Melvin Manhoef.  For those of you unfamiliar with Manhoef, he is a monster trained in the Dutch style of kickboxing.  Heading into the Mousasi fight, he was riding a 5-fight win streak (all by knockout) and had just destroyed all-time great, Kasushi Sakuraba.  Though the odds makers had Mousasi listed as a slight favorite, there was no question who Dream felt was the bigger draw.  Mousasi walked to the ring first with little fan fare.  Manhoef, on the other hand, made a real production of the ring walk.

When the giant monitors separated to reveal the fighter, he was standing with his back to the audience, facing a behemoth of a trainer who was shouting into his face.  Ring announcer Bas Rutten quipped, "Wish he had a microphone, eh?"  When Manhoef finally turned to face the audience, he looked ready to punch through a mountain.  He wore a studded dog collar with a chain link leash held by his trainer.  Then he smiled.  The smile seemed completely out of character for the guy who just seconds ago seemed ready to commit multiple homicides.  But then he did something even more strange for the moment.  He danced.  He danced all the way to the ring, the bright, wide smile never leaving his face.  By the time his trainer removed the dog collar, Manhoef's smile was gone.  He entered the ring and glared at Mousasi, who simply stood there, looking relaxed and almost bored.

When the bell rang, Mousasi quickly demonstrated why he was the slight betting favorite.  He wasted no time trading hands with the lethal kickboxer.  Instead, he closed distance and shot for a takedown.  Manhoef sprawled expertly, but couldn't free himself from Mousasi's grasp.  Moments later, Mousasi had another triangle choke locked up.  Manhoef, having little ground skills, had no chance to escape the choke but one.  And he tried.  Manhoef hoisted Mousasi above his head and carried the man's full weight for several steps before slamming him to the canvas.  Many fighters would have soiled their shorts if the guy they had locked in a triangle was strong enough to stand up and walk around the ring with you hanging from their shoulders, but Mousasi, again, was composed, and simply took the extra opportunity to cinch on the choke a bit tighter as Manhoef carried him.  When Manhoef slammed him to the canvas, Mousasi was unaffected.  He kept squeezing, and Manhoef had no choice but to submit.

So in short order, Mousasi had upset the fan favorite and now found himself in the tournament final.  But who would he have to face?  None other than Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza.  Jacare, which means Alligator in Portuguese, was the odds on favorite to win the tournament.  And not by a little, either.  Jacare is one of the most decorated submission grapplers in history.  He is a 5-time world jiu-jitsu champion.  5 time!  Three of those 5 championships he won at open weight, which means he had to face guys who were much bigger, heavier and stronger than he was.  He is one of the few men to hold a submission win over Marcelo Garcio, who is considered by many to be the greatest submission competitor of all time.  That's right.  Jacare submitted the best submission guy in history.  Let that sink in for a moment.

That same night, Jacare made short work of Croatian striker, Zelg Galesic, tapping him with a quick armbar in the first round to make it to the finals.  Being a long fight card, both finalists had an almost four-hour weight between fights.  By the time both men were back in the ring staring across at one another, they were fresh and ready to put on a great fight.  When the bell rang, Mousasi took a low stance, hoping to be able to better defend Jacare's inevitable takedown attempts.  It didn't help.  

Jacare shot in at Mousasi's legs, and though Mousasi tried to sprawl away from the jiu-jitsu wizard, he could not stop "The Gator" from clamping on.  For the second time that night, Mousasi found himself being hoisted above another man's head and carried across the ring.  And for a second time that night, he found himself being slammed to the canvas.  But this time, he didn't have a choke already cinched up.  No, this time he was the guy doing everything in his power to avoid being submitted.  Right away, Jacare started working to improve position.  From the top--or the bottom, for that matter--Jacare is an absolute beast, able to find submissions where few can.  For the fans watching live, it seemed just a matter of time before Jacare found one and was crowned tournament champion.

But then Jacare learned what Denis Kang had learned earlier: Gegard Mousasi kicks like a horse from his back.  Jacare pulled free from Mousasi's guard and then leaped at him, throwing a right handed haymaker.  But Mousasi smashed him with an upkick while Jacare was in mid-flight.  The kick knocked Jacare unconscious and left him lying limp on top of Mousasi.  

With one kick, Mousasi had pulled off an incredible upset and won the Grand Prix tournament!

Here is the whole video of the fight.

Now keep this in mind: to this day, Jacare is one of the most feared competitors in the sport.  In fact, he is fighting this Saturday on the very same card as Mousasi.  Since coming to the UFC, Jacare has looked like a juggernaut.  And Mousasi knocked him cold.

Mousasi followed up that performance with a quick submission win over K1 champion, Mark Hunt.  Like Jacare, Hunt has since made it to the UFC and has had a career resurgence, notching big wins against Stefan Struve and Antonio "Big Foot" Silva (fight of the year candidate).  In a stand-up fight, Hunt would probably wreck Mousasi.  When they fought, he outweighed Mousasi by close to 50 pounds.  But Mousasi took him down easily and secured a kimura armlock in the first round.  You can see the fight here.

Next up for Gegard was Renato "Babalu" Sobral, who is probably most famous for having been viciously knocked out twice by Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell.  All the same, Babalu was a fearsome opponent with a ton of high-level experience.  Though most expected Gegard to win, I don't think they expected him to do it so easily.  Within seconds, Babalu was on his back trying in vain to defend against Gegard's ground-n-pound.  But try as he might, he could not keep the "Dream Catcher" from putting him to sleep.  Mousasi hit him with several punches that left Babalu staring off into space, removed from consciousness.

Just three months later, Mousasi stood across the ring from a name that will be familiar to any of you who read my last post.  The name was Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou.  He had lost to Lyoto Machida a few years earlier, and to Babalu in his previous fight.  Though the hype train had stopped running for Sokoudjou by this time, many still believed in his potential.  Some even predicted a return to the form that saw him destroy top-10 fighters Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona.  This was not to be.  Mousasi proved too strong for the Judo black belt, and in the second round he forced the referee to stop the fight lest his vicious ground-n-pound permanently injure his once super-hyped opponent.

The trip above is representative of Gegard's creative fighting instinct.  That trip led to his gaining top position and, of course, to his brutal ground-n-pound.  You can see the whole fight here. 

The next month, Gegard faced mixed martial arts pioneer, Gary "Big Daddy" Goodridge.  Goodridge was long-in-the-tooth by the time Mousasi fought him, but he still possessed bone-crunching knockout power.  If that was of any concern to Mousasi, he didn't show it.  He strode confidently from his corner and traded strikes with the veteran before hitting a double leg takedown.  From top position, he gave Goodridge a beating, prompting the referee to stop the fight.  Goodridge immediately jumped to his feet to protest the stoppage, but in truth, he hadn't been defending himself.  You can see for yourself here.  Oh, and if you'd like to see some great knockout clips, just click this highlight reel to see why Gary was once considered a very bad man.

This dismantling led to Mousasi being paired against NCAA Division II National Champion wrestler, Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal, for the Strikeforce 205 pound championship.  This fight was one of the strangest I've ever seen.  King Mo was able to take Mousasi down anytime he wished.  Mousasi's takedown defense was so bad, it almost appeared like he wanted King Mo on top of him.  For five rounds, King Mo took Gegard down over and over again.

But that was all he did.

King Mo wasn't able to inflict any damage on the Armenian-born fighter.  For his part, Gegard stayed busy, slapping King Mo with strikes from the bottom, but never managing to lock up a submission or to hurt King Mo.  After 25 minutes, the judges gave Lawal a unanimous decision.  Though he had lost for the first time in four years, Mousasi did inflict more damage than his opponent did.  In fact, he left Lawal's face a swollen mess.

Swollen face or not, Mousasi still lost that fight.  His hype train came to a screeching halt after the loss, and, in my opinion, is one of the main reasons people aren't as excited to see him face Lyoto Machida this weekend.  Since then, he has rattled off seven straights wins without a loss.

Last April, he finally made his UFC debut and won a decision over late replacement, Ilir Latifi.  While most expected him to easily finish Latifi, especially considering that Latifi took the fight on short notice, I thought he looked great.  Mousasi's jab was masterful.  He used it the way a fencing champion uses his sword.  By the third round, Latifi's face was a plate of spaghetti.  Latifi won a moral victory for having taken the beating without getting knocked out, but make no mistake, Mousasi dominated the fight and probably would have finished it with a couple more rounds to play with.  

You can see the fight here.

It's been 10 months since that fight, which represents the longest layoff of Mousasi's career.  The layoff likely also contributes to the lack of buzz about this fight.  As they say, out of sight, out of mind.  But I have a feeling everyone will remember him after Saturday night.

Tune in next time when I explore the two fighters' styles and how they match up.  I'll also predict a winner.

Until then, keep your hands up and come out fighting.

By the way, do you like short stories?  If so, check out my collection.  It's titled "Big Blue" and is a mix of horror and pulp fiction, available in both paperback and Kindle edition.

Machida VS Mousasi Part 1 (with knockout clips)

Ladies and gentlemen, have you ever been super excited about something that everyone around you didn't consider a big deal?  Well that's how I feel about this fight.  For me, Machida versus Mousasi is one of the most intriguing match-ups we will see this year.  And I'm trying to determine why this fight isn't generating more buzz.  Because in my mind, it should be front page news.  ESPN should be covering it, interviewing the fighters, their trainers, their close friends--do they have pets?  Let's interview them, too!

The winner of this fight should be the consensus number one contender at 185 pounds.  The champion, Chris Weidman, who is coming off back-to-back wins against the greatest of all time, Anderson Silva, will be facing Vitor Belfort shortly.  The winner of that fight will almost certainly face the winner of this fight.  That means this fight between Machida and Mousasi is of paramount importance.  We could be watching the next middleweight champion.  So again, why does it feel like no one cares?

Is it because Lyoto Machida and Gegard Mousasi are relatively unknown?  Well, that may apply to Mousasi, who has spent most of his career outside of the UFC, but that doesn't apply to Machida.  Machida is a well-known commodity who has fought a number of big name opponents over the years.  In fact, he had generated a ton of buzz long before ever being signed to the UFC.  Why was that, you ask?  Because as a young prospect, he had already beaten several UFC notables such as former middleweight champion Rich Franklin (and this was before Franklin won the title), former 170 pound champion B.J. Penn, and The Ultimate Fighter standout Stephan Bonner.  When he finally made it to the UFC, hardcore fans were drooling all over themselves anticipating how he would do against the best of the best.  His first three fights in the UFC were not electrifying (he won all three by unanimous decision), but in those fights he displayed something that had never been seen in the Octagon before.  He displayed what a world class practitioner of karate who had also trained extensively in jiu-jitsu and takedown defense looked like.  And it looked good!  His opponents were befuddled.  They could not adapt to his rhythm.  All of their punches fell short.  Their takedowns were stuffed.  Their kicks sliced through the air, but missed the elusive karateka.

Let me tell you why this was so ground breaking.  Prior to Machida, karate did not have a favorable reputation for effectiveness in the octagon.  In the early UFCs, where most of the competitors were not cross-trained, the karate guys usually lost to the guys versed in ground fighting (jiu-jitsu, wrestling, sambo, etc.) or to the guys versed in combat sport striking (muay thai, boxing, kick boxing, etc.).  Over the years, some champions like Georges St. Pierre claimed a karate base (meaning they began their martial arts training with karate but then branched off and studied other fighting arts as well), but St. Pierre's fighting style was far more wrestling based than karate based by the time he was fighting for world titles.  Machida was the first competitor to utilize a karate-first style successfully.

When it was announced that Machida's fourth fight in the Octagon would be against Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, fans went nuts!  The message boards at Sherdog and The Underground were filled with threads about the fight.  Sokoudjou was coming off giant wins against two of the best 205 pounders in the world: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona.  And not only had he beaten those top ten guys, he knocked them out.  Cold.  There was enormous hype surrounding Sokoudjou.  Many expected him to catch Machida with a bomb and put him to sleep.  But that is not what happened.  Instead, Machida's point-fighting defense proved too difficult for Sokoudjou.  Like everyone else, he couldn't hit what he couldn't catch.  Machida was only in the line of fire long enough to blast Sokoudjou with quick counter strikes, and then he was gone, like a ghost.  In the second round, Machida landed one of those laser beam punches and then showed the world that he was more than a one-trick pony.  He slapped on a tight arm triangle choke and submitted Sokoudjou!

At that point, the mma world was officially in love with Lyoto Machida.  Not only could he pick apart opponents with karate, he could also choke them unconscious!  This catapulted him into the most high-profile fight of his career (up to that point): a goodbye match against the always-in-the-news, UFC badboy, Tito Ortiz.  This was supposed to be Tito's last fight in the UFC.  Tito's public arguments with UFC President, Dana White, were the stuff of legend.  Consequently, Dana did Ortiz no favors by matching him against Machida.  Dana could have, and some argued should have, given Tito an easier fight as a going away present.  After all, Tito had been the standard bearer for the UFC for years.  Indeed, there was a time when Tito was the face of mixed martial arts for most North Americans.  Some believed he deserved better.  Throwing an old, ring-worn Tito Ortiz in against a young, hungry Lyoto Machida was seen in many circles as throwing Tito to the wolves.  And that is pretty much what we saw on May 24th, 2008.  Tito lost every second of every round except for the end of the third round, when he caught Machida in a triangle choke.  For a moment, it looked as if Tito would shock the world!  But Lyoto slipped out of the choke and went on to dominate the rest of the fight.

Lyoto's next match was against a man who has been in the news quite a bit this past week: Thiago Silva.  For those of you who missed it, Thiago Silva was arrested this week for allegedly attempting to shoot his ex-wife and her new lover.  Some reports state that he also threatened to shoot everyone at the new lover's jiu-jitsu school.  Details are fuzzy at the moment, but it does appear that he had a standoff with SWAT officers before finally being taken into custody.  The UFC immediately fired Silva and Dana White said he would "never fight again" in the Octagon.  But in January of 2009, Thiago Silva was an undefeated monster of a man.  He had finished all four of his UFC opponents and all but one of his nine pre-UFC opponents.  And he did so with a gusto rarely seen in the sport.  At times, it looked like he really enjoyed hurting his opponents.  If anyone was born to be a fighter, it was Thiago.  He looked like the guy who was only happy in the heat of battle, only happy when stalking prey and smashing them.

Going into the fight, fans were split on who would win.  Both men were undefeated.  Both men brought formidable skill-sets into the Octagon, and both men looked unstoppable.  But Lyoto needed less than a round to show the world that Silva was indeed stoppable.  Machida dove into Silva's guard with a reverse punch that had everything behind it, and he knocked out Silva with that punch.  It was a sensational performance--the kind of performance that left no doubt that he was worthy of a title shot.  By all accounts, he was the most deserving contender to face new champion Rashad Evans, who had recently knocked out Forrest Griffin to win the title.

I could write at length about Rashad Evans.  His career has been up and down.  His story is a fascinating one that played out on The Ultimate Fighter--where he competed as a heavyweight!--and continued in the UFC.  But that would be too much of a digression.  Suffice it to say that Rashad Evans was an undefeated champion when he stared across the cage at Lyoto Machida.  He was a crushed, brutalized former champion when he left the cage.  Machida hit Rashad with a perfectly timed left hook that folded the champion in half.  The disfigured, brain-addled picture of Rashad's face as he lay crumbled on the canvas remains one of the most frequently Photoshopped images on the net--at least on mma sites.  Here it is for those of you who have never seen it:

And here is the GIF of the knockout:

Crazy, right?  That's what Machida did to an undefeated champion.  As you might expect, this caused a planet-wide breakout of Machida fever.  Joe Rogan famously declared, "Welcome to the Machida era!"  And at the time, it truly felt as if the Machida era would last forever.  Who could possibly have the tools necessary to stop the master karateka?  Surely it wouldn't be Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (pronounced Hoo'-uh, by the way), who had lost his first foray into the UFC, and then struggled against a past-his-prime Mark Coleman before knocking out an also long-in-the-tooth Chuck Liddell.  Rua didn't look like the same man who wrecked top competition in Pride years before.  This Rua looked like a shadow of his former self.  Most expected Machida to easily defeat his fellow countryman.  Rua would merely be the first notch on Machida's belt, the first of many title defenses.

But someone forgot to tell that to Rua.  Shogun harnessed the essence of what had made him so great when he burst onto the scene in Japan, winning the 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix, which was, at the time, the most prestigious event any 205 pound fighter could hope to win.  He seemed unaffected by Machida's elusive karate style.  Over and over again, Rua slammed his shin into Machida's leg like a baseball bat.  Indeed, he seemed to win most of their exchanges.  Not only had he solved the Machida puzzle, he presented one that Machida was unable to solve himself.  After five rounds, most expected ring announcer Michael Buffer to shout, "...and NEW champion!"  But he didn't.  He shouted, "...and STILL champion: Lyoto 'The Dragon' Machida!"

Some called it the worst decision of the year.  Machida had defended his title, but few considered it legitimate.  UFC President Dana White was one of those who felt that Rua deserved the victory, and he scheduled an immediate rematch.  Seven months later, Rua would not leave it up to the judges.  He knocked out Machida and it took him less than a round to do it.

And just like that, the Machida era was over.

He had to start over again.  His first fight after the loss was against former champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, star of The A-Team and all around bad mama jama.  Here is a photo of Rampage from the movie:

Their fight was highly anticipated because the world wanted to see how each of them would do after having lost their last fights.  Rampage had just lost to nemesis Rashad Evans (remember him?) after having coached against him in a season of The Ultimate Fighter.  Though he hadn't been knocked out the way Machida had been, he wasn't truly competitive, either, except for a brief moment when he caught Rashad with a punch, had him hurt, but was unable to finish him.   

On November 20th, 2010, Machida fought Rampage in the main event of UFC 123.  In a lackluster affair that saw neither man hurt, Machida received a visit from old man Karma himself, and lost a decision.  Most thought he won the fight.  Even Rampage quipped, "That dude whooped my [butt]."  

Suddenly, Machida had lost two straight.  The man who had appeared unbeatable now looked like he would be in danger of losing his UFC contract if he didn't win his next fight.  He had to turn things around in a hurry if he didn't want to lose his job.  The UFC matched him against the legendary Randy Couture.  And turn things around he did.  Machida landed a leaping front kick to Couture's face that left the fabled warrior unconscious.

With one electrifying kick, Machida had reignited fan fever.  No one could stop talking about the win, and just like that, Machida found himself, not only back in the good graces of the UFC, but back in a title fight!  This time against the young, undefeated Jon Jones, who had brutalized the man who knocked out Machida: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.  That's right, Jon Jones had beaten the man who had beaten Machida.  Brutally.  And now Machida would face his conqueror's conqueror.  Say that five times fast.

Machida gave a good account of himself.  In fact, he is the first man to have won a round against the reigning champion, Jon Jones.  After the first round, many fans wondered if Machida's style was too complex a problem for the champion.  Few men had been able to adapt successfully to Machida's karate style.  Perhaps Jon Jones would be the same.  But Jones showed why he is a great champion.  In the second round, he closed the distance, pushed Machida up against the cage, caught him in a standing guillotine, and choked him unconscious.  When he let go of the choke, Machida collapsed lifelessly to the canvas.

Once again, Machida would need to bounce back from a humiliating defeat.  He did so immediately against The Ultimate Fighter Winner, Ryan Bader.  Bader looked to bully Machida the way Shogan Rua had, but he learned that doing so requires split-second timing and a cast iron jaw, because Machida caught Bader with a perfectly timed counterpunch as the Arizona wrestler bullrushed him.  It was yet another breathtaking performance by Machida.

But Machida followed up that brilliant performance with with two not-so-brilliant performances.  In fact, some would describe them as boring.  The first was a split-decision win against certain Hall-of-Famer Dan Henderson, the second was a controversial loss to wrestling stand-out, Phil Davis.  Like I said, neither fight did Machida any favors with fans or with the UFC brass.  No one knew what to expect from Machida.  Should they expect the guy who could knock you out with a perfectly timed counter strike or the guy who would run circles around you and rarely engage in anything significant?

This gave Machida reason to reinvent himself once again.  He had began his career as a pudgy heavyweight.  Then he had dropped some pounds and looked in great shape at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs).  But Machida figured he could shed a few more pounds.  20 pounds, to be precise.  So that is what he did in October 2013.  He successfully made the cut to 185 pounds and faced his friend and training partner, Mark "The Filipino Wrecking Machine" Munoz.  

Which Machida showed up?  The knockout artist or the guy who danced around opponents without actually fighting them?  I'll let this clip answer the question:

As you can see, Machida looked amazing.  The weight cut didn't seem to have any negative affect on him.  In fact, many thought he looked better than ever.  And that was his last fight.  This weekend, he fights again.

If he were facing just an average UFC fighter, I would still be excited to see Machida fight.  The above clips demonstrate why.  When he is on his game, Machida is one of the most dangerous fighters on the planet.  But he isn't facing just anybody.  He is facing Gegard "The Dream Catcher" Mousasi.  And like Machida, when he is on his game, he is one of the baddest men on the planet.

Check out my next post, and I will show you why.  Until then, touch gloves and come out fighting.


Do you like short fiction?  How about horror fiction?  Pulp fiction, too?  Then check out my collection of short stories on Amazon.  It's titled Big Blue, and I think you'll like it.

UFC 169: My Thoughts

Wow, this didn’t turn out the way Dana White and the rest of the brass at the UFC headquarters wanted it to.  Of the 10 fights at UFC 169, 8 of them went to a decision.  That’s a record.  One the UFC surely didn’t wish to set.  Casual fans--and many hard core fans--want to see finishes.  They want to see wicked knockouts and bone-snapping submissions.  UFC 169 gave those fans only two finishes.  One was sensational.  The other was frustrating.

Let’s talk about the sensational one first.  Abel Trujillo knocked Jamie Varner cold with a right hook that looked like it would have dented a two-inch thick steel plate.  Varner bounced off the canvas like he had been shot, completely lacking any sign of life.

Varner had his moments before eating that right hook.  In fact, he had Trujillo hurt and dazed.  By fight’s end, both men looked drunk, their punches wide and looping--easily avoided by someone who wasn’t foggy with brain trauma.

It was the kind of performance that would win no awards for technique, but it delivered drama and excitement in a big way.  The knockout was unforgettable.  Abel Trujillo’s highlight reel, from now until forever, will be headlined by that murderous right hook demolition of the former WEC champion.  If you haven’t seen it yet, I encourage you to watch it.  There is little doubt that it will be on everyone’s top knockouts of 2014.

Now let’s talk about the other one.  It came in the main event of the evening.  The rematch between new undisputed champion and surging Alpha Male, Urijah Faber.  Barao caught Faber with punches in the first round, had him rocked, jumped on the fallen fighter, and repeatedly smacked him with light hammer fists.

Referee Herb Dean, one of the best in the business, told Faber to "Show me something."  To which Faber gave him a thumbs up with one hand while clinging onto Barao’s leg.  That "something" wasn’t enough for Mr. Dean, who stopped the fight, awarding a technical knockout victory to Renan Barao.

I have mixed feelings about the stoppage.  Part of me would much rather a fight be stopped too early than too late, and the line dividing the two is a nebulous one.  On top of that, the risk for a fighter goes beyond simply losing a fight.  It could mean losing their life.  Deaths have occurred in combat sports.  It’s one of those things we don’t like to talk about, but is a real possibility when a goal of the sport is to knock out your opponent.  Simply put, when a brain bounces off its skull, bad things can happen.

With this in mind, I have a hard time faulting Mr. Dean for stopping the fight. After all, Barao had rocked and dropped him twice with rocket right hands.  Urijah Faber’s safety was Herb Dean’s top priority.  He acted accordingly.

But another part of me hates that he stopped the fight.  Urijah Faber is a world class fighter.  He is one of the most durable guys to ever fight at 135 pounds in the UFC.  And he was fighting for the undisputed championship of the world.

Of.

The.

World.

The stakes don’t get any higher.  Consequently, you let that man go out on his shield.  He is an adult with a ton of professional experience.  He knows the risks.  All fighters do.  And while fighters often have to be saved from themselves--since many refuse to quit regardless of the beatings they absorb--they also have to be given a chance to turn things around, especially in a title fight, and especially when they are still conscious, still grabbing their opponent’s leg, and still clear-headed enough to give the referee a thumbs-up.

Faber could have helped his case by doing more than holding on and giving a thumbs up.  Had he been jockeying for position or firing back at Barao, we wouldn’t be talking about an early stoppage.

With that being said, I don’t feel the stoppage was horrible, but I do wish Herb had let it go a bit longer.  I still think Herb Dean is great at his job.  No referee can be expected to get it right every time out. I’m quite sure I would make many worse calls than Herb or any other referee has made.  Being a referee is likely one of the most thankless jobs in mixed martial arts.  My hat’s off to him for doing it and--far more often than not--doing it well.

So how about the battle of heavyweights?  Alistair Overeem won a 3 round decision over Frank Mir.  While it didn’t surprise anyone that Overeem earned a victory, it did surprise many people that he didn’t finish Mir, especially when considering how many more strikes Overeem landed than Mir did.  As hard as Overeem hits, and as brittle as Mir’s chin has sometimes appeared, most expected Overeem to win by knockout.

Instead, Overeem played it safe and didn’t go for the kill.  Afterwards, he called out Brock Lesnar, who doesn’t even fight for the UFC anymore.  This, as you might expect, drew the ire of UFC president, Dana White, who said Overeem gave "a crappy performance, in my opinion."

Though it was hardly the demolition many expected, it’s hard to fault Overeem’s safety first game plan.  Another loss would have likely meant his UFC run was over.  Other fighters have done the same thing.  What’s more, fighters will continue to do this for as long as the UFC continues their practice of releasing fighters after a few losses rather than allowing them to finish their contracts.

It makes for scared fighters.  They are not scared of fighting, of getting hurt, or of being humiliated in front of the whole world--they are scared of losing their jobs. And after hearing Dana White’s comments, Overeem should be scared.  He’ll need to keep winning if he wants to stick around.  Otherwise he’ll be following in the footsteps of fellow K1 and Pride veteran (and former opponent), Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic, whose UFC run was less than spectacular and led to his return to kickboxing.

Overall, UFC 169 will likely be remembered as one of the worst UFC pay-per-views of the year.  For me, however, it was pretty darned good.  Not because the fights were great, but because I correctly predicted the winner in every fight on the main card.  Not too shabby, eh?  Keep that in mind the next time you’re wagering on the fights.  You may wish to make a pit-stop at the old MMA Booth before laying down your hard earned money.

Until then, check out my short fiction collection, Big Blue.  Available in paperback and Kindle digital edition.  It has thrills, chills, and spills.  Plus, if you don’t like it you can always use it for target practice.

Until next time, touch gloves and come out fighting.

Billy Joe Booth

UFC 169

UFC 169 Preview and Fight Picks

Ladies and gentlemen, UFC 169 is almost upon us and I, for one, am excited.  And that surprises me, because I don't normally get excited when the little guys fight.  Of course, when I say little guys I mean 145 pounds and lighter.  Now before you crucify me for being honest, let me elaborate.  While those lighter weight fighters display a ton of technique, cardio that lasts for hours, and surprising knockout power, there's something--and I can't quite put my finger on it--that usually keeps me from getting excited.  I think it's that my subconscious believes the little guys just don't pack the wallop that the bigger guys do.  Of course, the main eventers tonight would beg to differ.  And they would be right in doing so.

Renan Barao, Jose Aldo, Urijah Faber and Ricardo Lamas are killers.  Give them an opening and they will rip off your head.  Without hesitation.  Then they'll toss it to the crowd.  All of them have shown remarkable finishing instincts and world class skills.  Plus, their gas tanks are bigger than they are!  They can fight full-blast for five rounds and then some.  What's not to like about that?

Let's break down the main card, shall we?

Jamie Varner VS Abel Trujillo

The pay-per-view kicks off with an intriguing match between former WEC 155 pound champion Jamie Varner and young stud Abel Trujillo.  I've seen Varner fight a bunch of times.  He combines solid stand-up with strong wrestling and submission skills.  He is, in every sense of the word, a mixed martial artist.  Abel Trujillo blew me away a few fights back when he defeated Marcus LeVesseur with sternum-crushing knees to the body.  In that fight, he looked unstoppable.  Of course, in his very next fight he ran into the Russian wrecking machine, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and lost a decision.  Of course, Khabib has never lost.  Many think he is a future champion, so Abel shouldn't be graded too harshly from that loss.  He bounced back with a No Contest against Roger Bowling.  The fight was stopped after Abel slammed another one of those murderous knees of his into Roger's head.  Problem was Roger was on the ground when he did it.  That, you see, is against the rules.  Yes, it's a stupid rule, but a rule nonetheless.  They rematched less than two months ago and Abel beat the stuffing out of Roger.

So who wins this one?  Varner is so good and so experienced, it's hard for me to bet against him.  The logical side of my brain says that he will win a decision, but the creative side of my brain still remembers how electrifying Abel looked against LeVesseur and believes he will win a decision.  I'm going with the creative side.

Abel Trujillo by unanimous decision.

John Lineker VS Ali Bagautinov

I'm not going to blow any smoke on this one.  I barely know these two.  I think I've seen Lineker fight twice and I know I've seen Bagautinov fight once.  I don't remember Lineker at all, so that tells you the impression he must have left.  As for Bagautinov, I was impressed with his win against Tim Elliot.  Elliot is a rugged dude who is huge for his division.  Bagautinov straight up out fought him using his speed and timing.  He hit Elliot with some shots that would have crumbled most fighters, but Elliot showed a cast iron jaw.  Regardless, a win over Tim Elliot means something.  For that reason I believe Bagautinov will beat Lineker.

Ali Bagautinov by 3rd round TKO.

Frank Mir VS Alistair Overeem

This fight just doesn't belong on a card ruled by little guys.  Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem are gigantic men.  Frank is the former UFC heavyweight champion.  He has been fighting as a professional since 2001, and has fought the best the division has to offer.  He is arguably the best heavyweight submission artist in the sport.  His arm-breaking efforts against Tim Sylvia and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira are hard to forget.  They're the kind of performances that make a man wince.  But his knockout losses are also hard to forget.  In his 8 losses, he was stopped 7 times.  That's 88 percent.  And if Mir is the most devastating submission artist at heavyweight, Alistair Overeem is arguably the most devastating striker.  Overeem is a K1 World Grand Prix champion.  That's about as good as it gets in kickboxing.  He retired Brock Lesnar with vicious knees and colon-ripping body kicks.  Plus, he's one of the few active fighters who can boast that they've been fighting longer than Mir.  Overeem has been fighting as a pro since 1999.  That's right.  15 years.  And he's only 33.

Both of these guys are coming off losses.  Mir has lost his last 3.  Overeem has lost his last 2.  But Overeem was winning in his last 2 fights before getting caught with big shots.  Mir wasn't.  I like both of these guys and I hate to see either of them lose, but Overeem is a bad match up for Mir.  Unless Mir lands a knockout blow (which he is capable of) or lures Overeem into a jiu-jitsu match, he is in for a long (or short) night.  Overeem's takedown defense is good enough to keep him on his feet if he wishes, and his striking is leagues better than Mir's.  If Mir does get the "Demolition Man" to the ground, Overeem has solid submission skills of his own--maybe enough to neutralize Mir's attacks.

Bottom line, I think Overeem lands some trademark knees to Mir's belly and some thunderous hooks to Mir's face.  This will result in Mir's loss of consciousness.

By the way, do yourself a favor and read this article by Seanbaby at Cracked.com.  The last section has a bit on Overeem that should make you laugh out loud.  If it doesn't, check your pulse because you're probably dead.

Oh, and here is a decent highlight video of Overeem.  Good stuff there, ladies and gentlemen.

Alistair Overeem by 1st round TKO.

Jose Aldo VS Ricardo Lamas

Jose Aldo is an assassin.  And the UFC champion.  He has amassed an incredible highlight reel of knockout victories against some of the best competition at 145 pounds.  To drive home just how good he is, let me list some of the guys he has beaten: Urijah Faber, Frankie Edgar, the Korean Zombie, Mark Hominick, Chad Mendes, Kenny Florian, Mike Thomas Brown, Cub Swanson, Manny Gamburyan and the Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins.  That's like every member of the X-Men.  Plus, he trains regularly with 135 pound champion Renan Barao.  The legendary BJ Penn has recently spent time training with them.  The point is, Aldo has faced the most horrific talents the sport has to offer.  And he has crushed them.  In his entire career, he has only lost one time, and that was 9 years ago!

His opponent, Ricardo Lamas, has looked great in his last 4 fights, and he beat some sheer beasts like Cub Swanson and Eric Koch in the process.  But he has not beaten as many world class level opponents as Aldo, and he has never faced anyone nearly as good as the champion.  Plus, he has been knocked out twice.  That's not a good thing when facing a laser beam striker like Jose Aldo.  I like Ricardo Lamas.  He is an excellent fighter.  But tomorrow night he is going to learn first-hand why Aldo belongs near the top of everyone's pound-for-pound list.

Jose Aldo by 4th round TKO.

Renan Barao VS Urijah Faber

Rematch, baby!

Yup, these two men have already fought one another.  That happened back in July of 2012, and Renan (pronounced Heh' nen) won by unanimous decision.  That fight was, well, weird.  You see, Urijah Faber wasn't supposed to fight Renan Barao.  He was supposed to fight UFC champion Dominic Cruz.  They had just finished coaching against one another on The Ultimate Fighter.  Normally, the coaches fight each other shortly after the season wraps up.  But Cruz suffered an injury that forced him out of the bout.  And who stepped in to take his place?  Rising up-and-comer Renan Barao, of course.

Renan cracked Faber's ribs in the first round.  Faber is as tough as they come, though, and he fought on for five rounds and kept it close.  All the same, Renan was too fast, too long, and too skilled for the California Kid.

I have mixed feelings about Urijah Faber.  For instance, there's a part of me that believes Urijah has received more title shots and press than his in-the-ring accomplishments have merited.  A lot of that is due to his movie star good looks and charisma.  However, another part of me realizes that Urijah is a certified monster in the cage.  He has spent most of his career defending world titles or fighting for them.  When he wasn't, he was knocking off top contenders.  Since losing to Barao, he has looked sensational, going 4-0 and finishing all but one of his opponents.  Plus, he has something now that he didn't have when he faced Barao the first time: Duane "Bang" Ludwig.

For those of you not familiar with him, Duane Ludwig is an old school kickboxer/mixed martial artist turned coach.  At one point, he owned the record for fastest knockout ever in the UFC (he may still have it...).  Anyway, since Ludwig took over head coaching duties at Team Alpha Male, Urijah and his teammates have shown dramatic improvements (with the lone exception being Joseph Benavidez's knockout loss to "Mighty Mouse" Demetrious Johnson).  Faber, especially, has looked better than ever, and that is saying something since he has been at the top of the game--or near the top--for years.

But as good as Faber is, and as good as Team Alpha Male is, Renan Barao and his camp, Nova Uniao, is even better.  Nova Uniao boasts two of the UFC's champions.  No other camp can claim that.  As Joe Rogan (and many others) have said, iron shapes iron.  At Nova Uniao, Renan Barao faces Jose Aldo every day.  BJ Penn flew in to work with the duo.  With that kind of constant honing and polishing, Renan Barao has become one of the sharpest blades in the sport.  Watching him fight is like watching fine poetry.

Except his poetry can kill you.

Renan Barao by Unanimous Decision.


Well, that wraps things up, ladies and gentlemen.  Enjoy the fights.

By the way, do you like short stories?  If so, check out my collection.  It's titled "Big Blue" and is a mix of horror and pulp fiction, available in both paperback and Kindle edition.

Until next time, touch gloves and come out fighting.

--Billy Joe Booth

Natural Born Fighter

Some guys just love to fight.  Even when they’re getting their butt kicked.  After watching Ultimate Fight Night 35, I’m positive that Yoel Romero is one of those guys.

For the first 10 minutes of his fight, Derek Brunson out struck and out wrestled the Olympian.  Brunson even bounced a left high kick off Yoel’s head that looked like it would have felled an elephant.  But it didn’t even faze the Cuban.  If anything, Yoel looked almost gleeful to  take it.  The tougher things got, the more he seemed to enjoy it.

Let me rephrase that, because the point bears repeating.  Yoel looked happy to be getting hurt.  I swear, at one point he licked his lips like a starving man staring at an all you can eat buffet.  

Many fighters--maybe even a majority of them--turn off their win instinct once they realize their opponent is laying a beating on them.  It’s a subconscious thing, I believe.  They stop trying to win.  Instead, they simply try to survive.  Sure, they still go through the motions--they throw punches, they shoot for take downs, they work for submissions--but not with the same gusto as before.

Even while Yoel was losing the first two rounds, he wore a mischievous smile as if he knew something we didn’t.  He knew that he was simply too athletic, too powerful, too skilled and too determined to lose.

And he was right, of course. The beating he gave Derek Brunson in the 3rd round was hard to watch, especially when the referee made him throw way more spleen-rupturing elbow strikes than was necessary.  It was a spectacular come back.  And a chilling one.

That’s a fighter, ladies and gentlemen.  The kind of guy I’d want to have my back in a bar fight.  The kind of guy who wouldn’t hesitate even for a millisecond to throw down against an entire football team.  The kind of guy who would probably fight for free.  That’s Yoel.  

I normally associate this unadulterated love for fighting with guys like Chuck Liddell, Travis Fulton, and Tank Abbott.  These guys won their fair share of fights (especially Liddell--and no one has fought more than Fulton) but none of them would would be confused for an Olympic level athlete once they took their shirts off.  These were work-hard, play-hard sort of guys who were just as comfortable lifting a beer as lifting a barbell.  

Yoel is a silver medalist in wrestling.  We’re talking creme de la creme.  The sort of dedication it takes to perform at that level is unimaginable.  But it doesn’t just take hard work.  There are athletes that put in just as much blood, sweat and tears into their training but they will never medal in the Olympic Games.  That’s because it also takes natural born ability to succeed at that level.  Yoel has it.

And that is scary.  He combines the heart and blood lust of a Chuck Liddell with an Olympian’s natural ability.  That’s a destructive combination.  And though he was stopped with strikes back in 2011 at a weight 20 pounds heavier and against a guy who looked about 50 pounds heavier than that, Yoel displayed a solid chin against Brunson, shaking off his head kick as if it were a love pat.  With that mix of skill, ability and tenacity you have the makings of a fighter who could be destined for greatness.

Do yourselves a favor and keep an eye on this guy.  Something tells me we’ll be seeing a lot more of him.  

What's Next for Chris Weidman?

What’s Next for Chris Weidman?

What’s next for Chris Weidman?  His first defense of the title ended in bizarre fashion, with Anderson Silva screaming in pain after a checked kick left his leg broken in half.  While he would have been happier with a more traditional knockout or submission finish, Weidman  earned a victory all the same and now looks forward to a murderer’s row of contenders all too eager to share the cage with him.

First up is Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort.  As a long time fan of the sport, seeing Belfort roll off three straight sensational knockouts over top competition in 2013 was mind boggling.  After all, he first stepped into the octagon in 1997.  By the time he faces Chris Weidman for the Middleweight title, 17 years will have passed since he won UFC 12.  17 years.  The idea that he may be a better fighter now, at the age of 36 than he was as an explosive 19-year-old is difficult to fathom.  But as crazy as it sounds, it may be true.  Vitor Belfort may be the best he’s ever been.

And he’ll need to be if he wishes to defeat Weidman.  Over the years, Vitor has had problems with strong wrestlers.  His fights with Randy Couture and Tito Ortiz come to mind.  Weidman has great wrestling credentials, plus he’s a dedicated jiu-jitsu practitioner under the tutelage of former welterweight champion, Matt Serra.  Oh, and he’s also knocked out the greatest 185 pound fighter in history, so his striking ain’t too shabby, either.

Here’s how I believe this fight will play out.  Chris will use a similar strategy to the one he utilized against Anderson Silva.  He will move straight ahead, looking to throw hard--possibly fight-ending--strikes, and looking to shoot for takedowns often and early.  While Vitor does have submissions off his back (see the Jon Jones fight, for instance, where Vitor almost won the title with an arm bar), he’s less comfortable in that position than in any other.  Chris, on the other hand, loves to apply grueling ground and pound from the top.  Weidman also looks for submissions from the top position.

Unless Vitor lands one of his highlight reel knockout shots early, I expect Chris to drag him to the canvas and systematically break him down.  Though it would be a great story if Vitor won the middleweight title after all these years, I don’t expect it to happen.  Chris is too young, too strong, too durable, and too well-rounded for “The Phenom.”  I think Chris Weidman will retain his title via TKO in the third round.

So assuming I’m right (and Lord knows I could be wrong), who might be next to challenge for Weidman’s title?  A quick look at the UFC rankings tells the story.  Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Gegard Mousasi, Michael “The Count” Bisping, Luke Rockhold, Tim Kennedy, Francis “Limitless” Carmont, Costas Phillipou, Dan Henderson, Mark Munoz, Tim Boetsch, Rashad Evans (who has hinted about a drop to middleweight after his fight with Daniel Cormier) and even Ultimate Fighter standout Uriah Hall (who lost to Weidman back in the day, prior to either of them making it to the big leagues of the UFC) all eagerly await their turns.

And, of course, there’s Anderson Silva.  The surgeon who put his leg back together again says Anderson can begin training again in as little as 6 months.  I’m no doctor, but that sounds a little too good to be true.  Anderson’s shin swung like a pair of nunchakus when it snapped in half, with his tibia forming the sticks and his skin serving as the chain that kept them together.  There’s no quick way to recover from that horrific of an injury.  Anderson will likely be out for more than a year.  By the time he comes back to the Octagon, he will be another year older (almost 40), and Chris Weidman will have likely gotten even better.  Though no one likes the idea of Anderson going out like that, with his leg shattered and his screams echoing in our memories, I hope he retires.  If not, I pray that he takes a tune-up fight before locking horns with someone of Weidman’s caliber again.  After the long layoff, Anderson will have to chip away the ring rust before he’ll be close to 100%, and that’s assuming he can ever regain the level of performance he enjoyed prior to the injury.  Some injuries are so severe, fighters never fully recover.  This could be the case with Anderson.

But while Anderson is on the shelf, healing, the most likely challenger is either “Jacare” (pronounced jock-uh-ray) Souza or the winner of the upcoming Lyoto Machida/Gegard Mousasi fight.  Jacare is one of the greatest jiu-jitsu fighters in the sport.  His accomplishments in submission grappling include winning the open weight world championships 3 times and the Abu Dhabi Combat Championships twice.  That’s just the highlights.  His titles are far too numerous to list here.  Suffice it to say, Jacare is a beast on the ground.  He is a threat to submit anyone. 

On his feet, Jacare is also formidable.  In his last fight he knocked out Yushin Okami with brutal punches.  Okami is normally difficult to finish.  Tim Boetsch did it and Anderson Silva was able to do it, but prior to those losses, he hadn’t been stopped since 2003.  The point is that Jacare can put opponents to sleep in a number of ways.  Of the group of monsters salivating to take on Chris, I believe Jacare may be the worst matchup stylistically for him.  Worst for Chris, that is.  Jacare’s stand up is solid, though not likely as solid as Chris’s.  After all, Chris knocked out one of the greatest mixed martial arts strikers of all time in Anderson Silva.  He also dropped Mark Munoz with a perfectly timed elbow strike and starched Uriah Hall with a left hook.  On the feet, Chris has an advantage.

On the ground, which is where it is likely to go seeing as how both of these guys began their martial arts training with ground fighting (Jacare with jiu-jitsu; Chris with wrestling) I see Chris having to defend constant submission attempts.  Chances are, Chris’s superior wrestling will allow him to work from top position.  From there, he’ll need to land hard punches and elbows often if he is to slow down Jacare’s submissions.  For his part, Jacare had best not sleep on Chris’s own submission acumen.  Matt Serra has claimed for years that Chris has world class jiu-jitsu.  Back in 2009, Chris entered the Abu Dhabi Submission Wrestling World Championships after only one year of jiu-jitsu training and made it to the quarter finals before losing to world class competitor, Andre Galvao.  His performance prompted noted MMA journalist Jordan Breen to say, “For such a novice fighter to be so aggressive and technical in a pure grappling competition against one of the world's best speaks volumes to what a great MMA middleweight Chris Weidman may become."

While I don’t expect Chris to submit Jacare (not unless he hurts him with strikes first and then slaps a choke on his dazed opponent), I wouldn’t be surprised if his own submission abilities allow him to avoid getting caught with one.  Randy Couture, who is a great wrestler but isn’t known for his submission abilities was able to fight Jacare to a draw in a pure submission wrestling match several years back.  In some ways, Chris reminds me of a younger version of Couture, but with a greater dedication to submissions and heavier hands.  Ultimately, I think his edge in striking and top control will be enough to earn him a decision win over Jacare.  With that being said, Chris will need to be at the top of his game to pull it off.

Lyoto Machida, who will be fighting Gegard Mousasi next, poses a complex problem to solve.  His karate-based fighting style has been too much for most of his opponents to handle.  He even won a round from Light Heavyweight champion, Jon Jones, before the champion solved the puzzle and choked him unconscious.   Machida has knockout power with both his hands and feet.  In my opinion, Only Mauricio “Shogun” Rua has truly out struck Machida.  Rua employs an almost reckless Muay Thai style made famous at the world renowned Chute Box Academy. Chris’s striking style is more analytical than Rua’s.  Both tend to move forward and press the action, but Chris seems to measure his opponent more.  He seems to focus more on gauging rhythm and distance to fire off perfectly timed counter strikes like the elbow he landed against Mark Munoz or the leg check that broke Anderson Silva’s leg.  Rua seems more focused on his own offense.  

Against a stylist like Machida, who is the ultimate analyzer and counter striker, Chris May wish to follow Rua's lead and be more offense-minded.  He might wish to look to make his own openings rather than wait for them.  Strike first instead of counter strike.  With that being said, he will need to be cautious when employing this game plan.  Others, like Ryan Bader, for instance, tried coming straight forward and bullying Machida only to run into one of Machida’s lethal counters.

I can envision this fight playing out a number of ways, and in both combatants’ favor.  Let’s take Machida, for instance.  I can see him using his cat and mouse approach to befuddle Weidman.  He could stay on the outside, away from Chris’s punches, only to dart in suddenly to land a straight punch or body kick, and then scoot out of harm’s way before Chris can retaliate.  He may be able to keep this up for five rounds.  He may even short-circuit Chris with one of those bursts before the five rounds are up.  Though Machida has good submission skills, I don’t see him catching Weidman with one.  Unless, again, he hurts him first with a strike and pounces before Chris can shake away the cobwebs.

Now let’s discuss how Chris can win.  First, we have to acknowledge that Chris could knock out Machida.  Chris has legitimate one-punch knockout power, as evidenced by the first Silva encounter.  And if he hurts his opponent but doesn’t put him to sleep with the first shot, he is a fantastic finisher, as he displayed in his fights against Mark Munoz and Uriah Hall.  Like Anderson, Machida could get too confident in his own striking, especially if he has success early on.  This could encourage him to take unnecessary risks and leave him vulnerable to a Weidman counter strike.  Machida has been knocked out before, so his chin isn’t full proof, and it may only take one shot from Weidman to end the night.  Machida will need to be hyper-focused throughout their match if he is to walk away with a win.

Chris might also be able to drag Machida to the canvas and work him over with ground and pound.  Not many have been able to do that, but Chris was able to take down Mark Munoz, who has elite level wrestling, so doing the same to Machida isn’t out of the question.  If that happens, Machida would be in unfamiliar territory.  It would be interesting to see how he responds to stifling top control and viscous elbows thrown at him from inside his guard.  Ultimately, I think Chris would get the win, but like the match against Jacare, Chris would need to bring his A-game to do it.  A less than fully focused effort could lead to a humbling experience for the champion.

Gegard Mousasi.  I think a lot of fans are sleeping on Gegard (Pronounced gay-guard.  No, I’m not joking.).  His first foray into the octagon wasn’t impressive.  He earned a decision against unheralded Llir Latifi, who was a last-second replacement for Alexander Gustaffson (who would later give light heavyweight champion Jon Jones all he could handle).  Though he won a unanimous decision, many were disappointed that Mousasi couldn't finish the late replacement.  However, reports state that Mousasi fought that match with an injured knee and actually had surgery on that knee after the fight.  Outside of the octagon, Gegard has been a monster, racking up victories over a who’s who of international competition.  For instance, he has wins over: Jacare (remember him? Gegard knocked him out with an up kick from his back.), Melvin Manhoef (a wickedly good standup fighter), Mark Hunt (K1 champion and current UFC heavyweight contender), Rameau Sokoudjou (who was at one time a super-hyped contender), Renato Sobral, Gary Goodridge, Denis Kang, and many others.  At his best, Gegard is a tough match for anyone--even heavyweights.  At 185 pounds, he could be an absolute leviathan.  

He is the most well-rounded of the contenders mentioned so far, being equally adept at striking and submissions.  His only weakness that I've seen is his takedown defense.  When he lost the Strike Force championship to Muhammad Lawal, he seemed unable to stop any of Lawal’s shots.  It should be stated, however, that Lawal is a world class wrestler, and when they fought, Lawal was still a wrestling-based fighter and not the boxer-first-wrestler-second fighter that he has become today.  Lawal wanted nothing to do with Gegard on his feet.  He shot for takedowns every time the two stood up.  And to Gegard’s credit, Lawal was unable to hurt him at any time during the fight.  But It should also be said that Gegard was unable to submit the wrestler or do any real damage from the bottom.  Their fight was an obvious, if somewhat boring, decision win for Lawal.

With that fight in mind, it may be wise for Chris to use a wrestling-first strategy against Gegard.  Chris’s takedowns are high level--maybe not as high level as Lawal’s, but probably not far off.  If he could take Gegard down, his ground and pound coupled with his expert knowledge of the submission game could give him the victory.  Since I’ve never seen Gegard hurt or dazed, I don’t think Chris is likely to knock him out.  But he could grind out a decision or possibly catch him in a submission, though the submission isn’t as likely.  Jacare couldn’t submit Gegard, so I don’t like Chris’s chances.

As for their striking, I think Gegard matches up favorably with Chris.  His strikes are fluid and natural and speak to countless hours of training in the gym.  He has defeated 18 of his opponents by TKO (technical knockout), or 53% of his wins.  Plus, he has won most of his fights against striking-based opponents like Mark Hunt and Gary Goodridge.  But it is hard to discount Chris’s own striking ability.  Though, to me, his strikes don’t appear as natural or as crisp as Gegard’s, he has out struck several opponents who, on paper, were considered superior strikers, like Anderson Silva and Uriah Hall.  So the bottom line is that he gets the job done against strikers. 

The wrestling edge goes to Chris, whose collegiate wrestling credentials are exemplary.  The submission acumen of both fighters is high level.  Gegard has submitted 11 of his opponents--that’s 32% of his wins.  Weidman, on the other hand, has submitted 3 of his opponents.  Since he has only fought 11 professional fights, that equals an impressive 27% of his opponents.  However, when he entered the East Coast Grappling Quest tournament, he mowed through 13 opponents and finished every one of them with submissions, so the man knows his way around a jiu-jitsu match.

Still, Weidman has only fought in 11 MMA matches.  This brings me to my next point.  Experience.  Gegard has far more professional experience than Chris.  In fact, he has been fighting as a professional for over 10 years.  That’s 6 more years than Chris has been fighting.  In that time, Gegard has fought 37 times, making him one of the most experienced competitors Chris has ever faced.  And he has competed in some of the biggest organizations in the world, such as Pride, Strike Force, Dream, K1, and, of course, the UFC.  He has fought for world titles before, so chances are Gegard will not be overwhelmed by the moment when he steps into the Octagon to face Chris Weidman for all the proverbial marbles. 

With that being said, the UFC is, currently, the biggest stage in mixed martial arts.  It doesn’t come any bigger, any more intense, or with any more pressure than what Gegard would face against Chris Weidman for the 185 pound world championship.  And Weidman has already been through that.  Twice.  And came out victorious both times.

The other fighters I mentioned earlier are still several wins away from challenging for the world title (barring the need for a last minute replacement), but know that all of them pose serious challenges to Chris Weidman.  The 185 pound division is stacked.  The top 15-20 are all beasts who could conceivably win a world title in the future.  But Chris Weidman may very well be the biggest beast of all for a long time.  For now, there is no doubt that he is king of the mountain.  He has the tools and the will to defeat the many challengers to his crown, but in mixed martial arts nothing is ever certain.  Except for this:

I am looking forward to watching how this all plays out.  Hopefully, you are, too.