UFC 170: Cormier vs Cummins

Daniel Cormier and Patrick Cummins.  Two old friends reunited!

Not quite.

Daniel Cormier is an undefeated former top ten heavyweight contender who is moving down to 205 pounds for the first time in his career tonight.  Patrick Cummins is a last-minute replacement for the injured "Sugar" Rashad Evans.  He is also a former training partner and wrestling opponent of Daniel Cormier's.

According to Cummins, he used to make Cormier cry in training.  And when Patrick and Daniel were interviewed on television, Daniel did not deny it.  Instead, he explained that back when they trained together, the entire training camp was centered around him.  He was preparing for the Olympics.  Consequently, they tortured him in practice, making him wrestle one guy after another until he couldn't move.  His opponents were all rested.  He, obviously, was not.  But more importantly than the physical fatigue, Daniel was dealing with a most heart-wrenching personal matter.

He lost a child.

As a father of two, I would forgive almost any behavior from a man who had just suffered the death of his child.  He cried while getting beat on in the gym?  So what!?!  I'm surprised he wasn't crying while simply walking to the gym.

That Patrick would use Daniel's grief as a marketing tool to get noticed by the UFC is pretty rotten.  It worked, so mission accomplished, Pat, Ol' Boy.  Let me explain.  Just a few weeks ago, Patrick Cummins was working at a coffee shop.  That's right.  A coffee shop.  Being a former felon somewhat limits one's career choices.  His mixed martial arts career has been good, but there hasn't been much of it.  As a two-time all american wrestler, he has found it hard to get fights.  Not many guys want to face him.  So he has only fought four times as a professional, and he has won all four times.  And he has been telling anyone who will listen that he used to beat the crap out of top ten heavyweight, Daniel Cormier.

Someone with connections to UFC President, Dana White, listened to him.  And when Rashad Evans had to pull out of his fight with Cormier at the last minute, Dana White said, "Get that kid on the phone."

So Patrick's manager called the coffee shop, hoping to let Patrick speak with Dana--the most powerful man in mixed martial arts, the Godfather of the sport.  But Patrick's coffee shop boss wouldn't let him take the call.  In fact, he said, "Take that call and you're fired."

Patrick took the call.

And got a promotion.  Tonight, he will have a chance to back up all his smack talk.  And he will probably make half a year's coffee shop salary or more when he does it.

But when it's over, I wonder if he'll think it was worth it?  Daniel Cormier is legit.  He trains every day with the baddest man on the planet, Cain Velasquez.  And from what we're told, he holds his own.  As a professional, he has wins over some top ten fighters like Antonio "Big Foot" Silva, Roy "Big Country" Nelson, and former UFC champion, Josh Barnett.  He also beat up Frank Mir.

Plus, he's angry.  For the first time, he has had to make a weight cut down to 205 pounds.  Fighters are notoriously cranky when they cut weight.  Can you imagine how cranky a guy is if he's doing it for the first time?  And he had considered Patrick Cummins a friendly acquaintance, if not an actual friend.  But this friend broke one of the golden rules and blabbed about what happened in the gym.  Every fighter knows that the gym is like Las Vegas.  What happens there, stays there.  To tell others what you did to a training partner in sparring is serious weak sauce.  Daniel now has genuine dislike for his old training partner.  And Daniel is scary enough when he likes his opponents.

I predict a bad night for Patrick Cummins.  Daniel will put him to sleep with strikes in the second round.

Daniel Cormier TKO Patrick Cummins Round 2

Until next time.

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann

Boy, oh, boy!  UFC 170 is this weekend and, once again, I am excited.  The card is headlined by the most popular female fighter in the world, "Rowdy" Ronda Rousey.  If you haven't seen Rousey fight, what are you waiting for?  She has won all 8 of her fights by armbar.  And, having earned an Olympic bronze medal in judo, Rousey throws her opponents around like they're stuffed animals.  It's dominant, alpha woman stuff.

Her opponent on Saturday, Sara McMann, is also an Olympian, but in wrestling.  And she did one better than Rousey.  She earned a silver medal.  Never before has Rousey faced that caliber of wrestler in the mma arena.  For the first time, she may face someone who is better than she is at controlling opponents on the ground.

And that's what makes this matchup so interesting.  What happens when a truly world class judoka runs into a truly world class wrestler?  Well, we get to find out.  McMann may actually stuff all of Rousey's throw attempts.  She might wind up on top of Rousey and have some opportunity to drop some crushing elbows.  Rousey might be surprised by McMann's strength.  Winning an Olympic silver medal in wrestling requires unbelievable fortitude.  Wrestlers put themselves through misery during training and during their competitions, where they're often having to cut weight multiple times in a single weekend.  McMann has been there, done that, got the t-shirt, and power doubled the fool who was wearing it.  Her strength will be on a different level than any female Rousey has faced.  How will Rousey react to that?

With that being said, nothing in this world will prepare McMann for the Tazmanian Devil she's going to face on Saturday.  Nothing.  Rousey can at least train with men to simulate McMann's strength advantage.  There's no one in the world who has Rousey's judo, coupled with her crazy armbar, tripled by her win at all costs attitude.  If McMann takes Rousey down, she'll be in constant trouble, since Rousey can hit that armbar from any position.  If McMann clinches with Rousey, she may be going for a ride, since she will likely have never faced someone with the judo chops Rousey has.

But what happens if they decide to stand and bang?  Could that happen?  Rousey has always taken the fight to the ground.  She has thrown strikes only long enough to close distance.  McMann also looks to take the fight to the ground.  But maybe for the first time in her career, Rousey will have a striking advantage over her opponent.  Rumors abound that Rousey is getting better and better with her hands, that she is dropping world class female boxers in the gym with body blows.  Videos of her working mitts and shadow boxing show a gal who knows how to throw punches in combination.  What if she decides to show off what she's learned against a gal who has even more to learn about punching?  And what if that gal also wants to stand and trade because she fears that going to the ground with Rousey will end with her getting her arm hyperextended?

I'll tell you what might happen: this could turn into a boxing match!  If so, it probably won't be a good one.  These gals are ground fighters by trade.  When ground fighters box, it usually turns into a sloppy mess.  Not always, but usually.  Could be fun to watch, all the same.

But I believe these two are destined to hit the ground.  When they do, McMann may stifle Rousey's offense for a round or two, may even win a round or two.  But Rousey is the most tenacious athlete I've seen in mma.  She will be offended by McMann's winning, and that will tick her off.  A ticked off Rousey is a frightening thing.

Like she said recently, "I can tell that this title is not as important to [McMann] as it is to me.  She has a kid at home, and she has to go home to that kid.  I can afford to be selfish, where she can't.  I'm willing to die in there, and she can't."

And after having watched her fight and coach The Ultimate Fighter, I believe her.  She doesn't look at an mma match as a sporting event.  She looks at it as a fight.  A war.  Losing, to her, is the same thing as death.
"On paper, [McMann's] an amazing athlete, and athletically you could say we're very close to equals, and that's why people are so excited about this fight," Rousey said.  "But I think I'm more of a fighter than she is."

So do I.

Expect those armbar attempts to come nonstop.  Eventually, she will catch her fellow Olympian with one.

Prediction: Rousey by submission Round 3.

Until next time.

On Ben Askren

So, I got to thinking about Ben Askren today, about how he was released by Bellator even though he was their undefeated champion, about how the UFC declined to sign him, and about how he eventually signed with OneFC, a smaller mma organization based in Singapore.  And at the end of all that thinking, I felt a deep disappointment.

Ben Askren, for those who are unfamiliar with him, is arguably the greatest wrestler in mixed martial arts.  In high school, he won the state championships.  Twice.  In college, he wrestled for the University of Missouri, where he made it to the NCAA championship match ALL 4 YEARS.  That's right, he was in the finals every year of his collegiate career.  He lost in his Freshman and Sophmore years before winning in both his Junior and Senior years of college.  In both years when he won the national title, he went undefeated.  That's right, he had over 80 wrestling matches without a defeat.

He finished college with an overall record of 153-8.  91 of those 153 wins were pins, which puts him third in the all time pins list.  ALL TIMES.

If that wasn't enough, Ben then made the 2008 Olympic team.  He won his first match by pin, but was then defeated soundly by Cuba's Ivan Fundora.  This ended his dreams of an Olympic medal.  Some thought that Ben's inexperience in freestyle wrestling was his downfall, since he had wrestled folkstyle in college.  But according to his Wikipedia page, Ben made no excuses.  Instead, with tears in his eyes, he said, "That wasn't it.  I just wasn't good enough.  I sucked."

After that, Ben decided to take his world class wrestling skills into the mixed martial arts arena.  So far, his record is spotless.  12 wins.  No defeats.  While fighting for Bellator, he dominated his competition (except for veteran, Jay Hieron, who gave him a stiff test) so thoroughly, the fights were widely panned as boring.  The other guys had no chance.  But while Ben completely owned the competition, he had a difficult time finishing them.  Once he got his hands on an opponent, they were going wherever he wanted them to, but he could pound on them all night, turn their faces into hamburger, and still fail to knock them out.

Consequently, he wasn't the most beloved Bellator employee.  He may have been one of the best welterweights in the world, but he wasn't pulling the ratings they were looking for.  Bellator wanted knockouts, like the ones delivered by Douglas Lima.  See the clip below:

Guess what?  You see the guy landing a vicious head kick knockout above?  You do?  Well, Ben Askren rag-dolled him.  It wasn't even competitive.  Ben put him on his back and kept him there.  Pounded on his face all night.  But the casual fan--and even some hard core fans--thought it was boring.

So when Ben's contract ran out, Bellator didn't resign him.  They let their champion walk.

Ben and the rest of the mma world expected him to be signed by the UFC.  After all, it was clear he had some of the best wrestling chops in the business, and wrestling is arguably the best base a mixed martial artist can have.  Many fans and experts believed he would fit right in with the UFC's 170 pound contenders.  I am one of those.

And though he met with UFC owners, they did not come to an agreement.  UFC president, Dana White, said Ben needed to go to the World Series of Fighting promotion where he could actually face some good competition, and that he wasn't ready for the big leagues.

Now, many have flamed Dana and the UFC for this decision.  They say the UFC can't claim to have the best fighters if they're not signing a guy like Askren.  They say that Dana's comment about Ben not being ready for the competition in the UFC is just a smoke screen--that the real reason for not signing Ben is they couldn't risk signing a Bellator guy who might come in and wreck their division.  It would make Bellator look good at the UFC's expense.

I tend to agree with those guys.  Dana's comments were insincere.  But from a business point of view, I find it hard to fault their decision.  Ben had the potential to beat some big names.  That would have made Bellator look great, and Bellator is in the UFC's cross-hairs.  They would love to see Bellator fail the way so many of the UFC's rivals have failed in the past.

Plus, the UFC already receives truck loads of criticism any time one of their cards is filled with decisions instead of knockouts and submissions.  Their last two cards, for instance, have set the record, and then tied the record, for most decisions.  And what was the fan response?  UFC sucks!  I'm never buying another pay-per-view!  This is watered down garbage!

If the UFC is constantly being criticized when their fights end with decisions, should it surprise anyone when they don't sign a guy who is infamous for his inability to finish?

So, again, from a business stand point, I get it.  But from a purist's stand point, I don't.  As a purist, as a guy who loves to watch high-level mixed martial arts, I want to see the best guys in the world fight each other.  From what I've seen, Ben Askren is one of those guys.  For that reason alone, he should be in the UFC, where the best 170 pound fighters ply their trade.

Would he beat everyone?  I don't know.  I haven't seen him fight against the caliber of opponents he would face in the UFC.  He might get in there and get his head ripped off by Carlos Condit, or have his limbs twisted into knots by Damien Maia.  Or he might do to them what he has done to almost every man he's faced so far: put them on their backs and grind them into the canvas.  And keep this in mind: Ben is getting better at finishing fights.  In fact, he has finished his last two fights.  Not because he knocked his opponents unconscious, but because he was throwing them such a severe beating, the referee or the doctor decided they had to stop it.  For their own safety.  In other words, they were worried that Ben might beat them to death.

So the two biggest mma promotions in North America passed on Ben, but the biggest mma promotion in Asia did not.  One Fighting Championship, or OneFC, signed him.  I expect he'll dominate the competition there just as he dominated it in Bellator.  Who knows?  Maybe when his contract expires in a few years, the UFC will take a chance and sign the man.  Or then again, he might be surprised by the level of talent in Asia.  Perhaps he'll run into a guy who has the answer to his wrestling.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Until next time.

Machida Versus Mousasi: Post Fight Thoughts

Here in North Carolina it is 1:22 am.  Well past my bed time.  But I just finished watching Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida's masterful performance against Gegard Mousasi and sleep will have to wait.  Prior to the fight, I wondered if their styles would make for an exciting match or a boring one.  The answer, for me at least, was neither.  It was both interesting and frustrating to watch.  I was never bored, but I was rarely excited.

The exciting parts were courtesy of Lyoto, who was great.  He did his thing, and stuck to the karate style that has brought him so much success.  Gegard, on the other hand, barely threw the left jab that had been so effective against Ilir Latifi.  And while he threw some good leg kicks, he didn't throw nearly enough of them.

Of the two fighters, Lyoto is the one who fought with urgency.  Though he danced around the cage as always, avoiding danger, he also blitzed with chain punch combinations, flying knees, and skull-splitting head kicks.  Gegard seemed content to throw an occasional left hook, an occasional right cross, and an occasional leg kick--even when it was obvious to everyone that he was way behind on points.

With that being said, I do have a couple positive things to say about Gegard's performance.  First, I thought his reversal from half guard in the fourth round was pretty sweet.  It gave him top position and a rare opportunity to inflict damage on the karateka.  Props to Machida, though, since he nullified Gegard's ground-n-pound which is something few other fighters have been able to do.

Prior to the fight, Gegard was considered to have a pretty solid chin.  The consensus was that he could take a punch.  After the fight, there is no doubt.  Machida hit him with the same round kick that put Mark Munoz to sleep, and Gegard didn't blink.  Later in the same round, Machida hit him again--this time with the instep of his foot instead of with the shin--and Gegard shrugged it off like it was little more than a mosquito bite.  The man may have the best chin in the business.

But his versatility and ability to adapt to his opponent, something which I had written highly of in this week's blogs, was nowhere to be seen.  Gegard did the same thing for five rounds.  Even though Machida was beating him on the feet, Gegard rarely shot in for takedowns.  And, again, I am confused on why he didn't throw his jab more often.  I can only chalk it up to Machida's elusiveness.  Perhaps Mousasi never felt like he was in range to use it.

With all that being said, congratulations to Lyoto Machida.  Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort had better start designing game plans now to face the karate master, because he is almost certainly going to receive a title shot.

As for Gegard, he'll still be a stern test for other middleweights and light heavyweights, but I hope he reviews the fight, sees that he should have fought with greater urgency, and does so in the future.  It's often been said that he looks bored in the cage.  Well, tonight he fought like it.

Until next time.

UFC Fight Night 36: Under Card

I'll be honest.  There's a lot of names on the under card that I'm not familiar with.  Guys who fight in international markets that I don't have easy access to.  For those guys, it doesn't make sense for me to make a fight prediction.  My general rule of thumb is that I have to have seen a man fight before I will make a prediction on whether or not he has what it takes to win.

So that leaves me with a predicament.  You see, of the 22 fighters on the under card, I've only seen 9 of them fight.  Less than half.  So I'll only make a handful of predictions here.  If you've been reading my blogs this week, you know that I am spitting in the eye of popular opinion by predicting that Gegard Mousasi will win a decision over Lyoto Machida.  I think Mousasi's jab, leg kicks, ability to adapt to his opponents and his ability to stay cool under fire will make the difference in a close fight.

Machida, being a fan favorite (and hometown hero), may be gifted an undeserved decision.  Stranger things have happened.  After all, Machida was given a decision win over Shogun Rua in their first fight even though it was pretty clear that Shogun deserved the win.  We shall see.

How about Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza versus Francis Carmont?  This is an interesting fight.  Carmont is HUGE for the middleweight division.  At the weigh ins yesterday, he looked much bigger than Jacare.  Plus, Georges St. Pierre--former pound for pound great and UFC welterweight champion--has dedicated every day of training camp to Carmont.  In other words, Carmont should look better than he ever has, and that's saying something because he looked pretty darned good in his last fight dominating Costas Philippou.

But he's facing a juggernaut.  Jacare is one of the greatest jiu-jitsu competitors of his generation, having won the world championships 5 times--3 at Open Weight!  So he is used to dealing with bigger guys.  Plus, he has a submission victory over Marcelo Garcia, who many consider the greatest jiu-jitsu competitor in history.  He had those skills before he made the transition to mixed martial arts.  Now he has developed a complete skill set.  His striking, for instance, is much better than it was a few years ago.  In his last fight, he blitzed Yushin Okami with punches against the cage.  Not only is he striking accurately, he is striking with a ton of power.

What a frightening proposition: one of the greatest submission fighters on the planet becomes one of the greatest strikers on the planet, too.  Think about that for a moment.  I wouldn't want to face that guy.  Now to be clear, I am not saying that Jacare is one of the greatest strikers in the sport, but I am saying that he has the potential to become one.  And if he does, I'm sure the top ten middleweights won't look forward to facing him, either.

My prediction: Jacare wins by unanimous decision.

Now let's discuss Joe Proctor versus Cristiano Marcello.  Both of these guys are alumni of The Ultimate Fighter.  Neither of them won that tournament, and both of them are coming off losses and long layoffs.  Marcelo will be fighting in front of a home-country crowd in Brazil, so he should be super hyped to perform at his best.  Proctor trains with Joe Lauzon, so he should be well prepared.  I've seen both of these guys fight several times, and Proctor has appeared the more durable, determined fighter.  Because of that, I pick him to win a decision.

My last prediction will be for the Charles Oliveira versus Andy Ogle fight.  Ogle is a hard-nosed British banger who brings a high level of intensity into the cage.  He is yet another alumni of the Ultimate Fighter.  Officially, he has fought 3 times in the UFC, but he lost 2 of those fights.  All 3 fights have gone to a decision.

Charles Oliveira caught my eye when he finished Ultimate Fighter winner Efrain Escudero back in September 2010.  Since then, he has been inconsistent, losing to Cub Swanson, Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone and Frankie Edgar, but getting some respectable wins against another Ultimate Fighter winner, Jonathan Brookins, and Eric Wisely.  Even in his losses, he has shown glimpses of the undefeated fighter who beat Escudero.  Because of that, I think he'll win.  In fact, I think he'll catch Ogle in a submission in round 3.

So that's it, folks.  Fights start in a few hours.  Be sure to tune in and enjoy!

Until next time.

The Beauty and the Heart Break

"How do you watch that stuff?" 

If you're a hardcore fan of combat sports (mixed martial arts, boxing, kick boxing, etc.), you've been asked this question before. Sometimes a friend, or maybe a fellow worker, will ask it after you've told them, "Sorry, can't go out on Saturday. I'm watching the fights." Regardless of why they ask you, the question is hard to answer. I usually mutter something about how combat sports cater to a man's primal self—which makes me look and feel like some sick masochist. And unfortunately, some combat sports—boxing, for instance—are renowned for their casualties. Fans are most often asked, "How can you watch that stuff?" right after a boxer dies from ring injuries. And though, statistically, more people are injured in football, soccer, hockey and auto-racing, that doesn't help ease the guilty feelings we find creeping into our conscience. After all, combat sports are the only major sports in which the goal is to hit another man (or woman) until he stops hitting back. In mixed martial arts you could also choke them unconscious or bend their limbs to the point of snapping. Unless they tap. It makes us wonder, why do we watch this stuff? 

But there is more to it. 

A combat sport—at its best—is two men imposing their wills on one another. It goes beyond a mere match of skill or strength. It is a contest of desire. When all else is equal, the fighter who wants it more will be the one who ultimately has his arm raised in victory. This is one reason why we get frustrated when a fighter backpedals for an entire match. If only he threw more punches! If only he tried a bit harder! If only he wanted it more. Or when we watch a lay-n-pray artist hold his opponent down for three rounds without once committing to a finish. He's obviously got some skills, we say. After all, he's taking his opponent down at will. Why doesn't he try to finish him? The answer, of course, is that he doesn't want to win as much as some other great athletes want to win. He doesn't give his all. He doesn't impose his will. 

Maybe fear has something to do with it. What happens to a man's confidence after he's been knocked out? Who knows what kind of torture he's endured in the gym? Maybe he's been hurt badly, and fears that throwing caution to the wind is too reckless. It leads to trouble. It leads to pain. Maybe that's what holds him back in the last rounds of a fight in which he is hopelessly behind on points and only a finish can salvage victory. 

He knows and we know that in no other sport can a man go from winning handily to losing utterly, lying crushed, senseless, unconscious at the feet of his opponent, with all sense of pride ripped from him. One punch, one choke is all it takes. And herein lies its beauty. One can find—even in a bout between two talentless, free swinging club fighters—a certain beauty in sacrificing caution, in giving one's all in an effort to separate a man from his senses, knowing that any error in timing can result in one's own abject humiliation, incapacitation, and yes, even death. 

You won't find that in football. Sure, a team can come back from 30 points down and miraculously win in the fourth quarter. But the team can't accomplish that in one play. Same with basketball or tennis or any other non-martial sport you can imagine. There are comebacks. Underdogs do win. But you won't ever find the equivalent of a one punch knock out win for a man who was losing every second of every round up until he landed the big one. A home run is cool. A slam-dunk is nasty. But a knock out is deadly. 

Some fans question their love for the sport after they've seen an awful decision. We've seen a couple of those in recent years. Whether or not you believed Georges St. Pierre deserved the win against Johnny Hendricks, you had to wonder why the judges felt Timothy Bradley beat Manny Pacquiao. Some of us were ready to hang up the gloves, so to speak. I'm never watching another fight, we said. It's all crooked anyway. Why bother? 

But inevitably, we are drawn like moths to a flame. And we realize that even when it breaks our hearts—when a good fighter is robbed, when a promoter screws his fighter out of hundreds of thousands of dollars, when two top guys in a division can't fight because they work for rival organizations, when a fighter dies in the ring—we will stick around for those moments that can be found no where else. We stick around, hoping to see another Ali/Frazier, a Griffin/Bonner, or a Frye/Takayama. It is in fights like these where the beauty of this sport holds us spellbound. We'll sit through a hundred Kalib Starnes/Nate Quarry fights just for the chance to see one Chuck Liddell/Wanderlei Silva. 

We may not know what to say when someone asks us, "How do you watch that stuff?" We could talk to them of why we watch, of the excitement we feel when contemplating great match-ups. We could tell them it's the possibility of seeing something great, something beautiful, and perhaps they'd understand—I've converted a few—but then again, we may only be wasting our breath. "There is nothing beautiful about two men beating each other up," they say. 

But they are wrong.

Machida VS Mousasi Part 3: Who Wins, and Why.

Now that we've looked at both fighters and some of their biggest fights, it's time to look at how they match up against one another.  As they say in combat sports, styles make fights.  It's the reason why Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier always brought out the best in one another.  Because their styles seemed engineered to give the other one problems.

Let me explain.  Muhammad Ali was the consummate boxer, the guy who could dance around the ring, always just an inch away from his opponent's punches, and pepper them with jabs.  He could also sprinkle in hooks and crosses, and dart away before they could respond in kind.

Joe Frazier was a tank with good head movement and a howitzer left hook.  He was able to wade through his opponents' jabs and make them pay with brutal body blows and fight-ending head shots.

Every time these guys fought each other, the result was sensational.  Ali did his thing.  Frazier did his thing.  And both knew they had been in a fight.

Machida and Mousasi also have unique fighting styles.  But will their styles combine to make a great fight, or a stinker?  Let's look closer.

Machida fights the way a chess master plays chess.  He seems to constantly analyze his opponents and reacts immediately to their mistakes.   He is a counterstriker at heart, looking to play defense until he spies a weakness.  But then he attacks.  And his attacks have provided mma with some of the most sensational knockouts in history.  Make no mistake, though he is a defense-minded fighter, his offense is as good as anyone's.

Mousasi is also an analyst inside the ring.  A man who relies less on instinct and more on strategy.  Like Machida, he is a thinking man's fighter.  He can mold his strategy around his opponent.  Now, that sounds like a simple thing.  But in a real fight, it seems to be one of the most difficult things for a fighter to do.  Often, strategy flies out the window the moment you're punched in the face.  Then you fall back on instinct and on what you're most comfortable doing.  Brawlers brawl.  Wrestlers wrestle.  Jiu-jitsu guys pull guard.

Mousasi doesn't.  When he fought superior strikers such as Melvin Manhoef and Mark Hunt, he took the fight to the ground almost immediately.  When he faced Ilir Latifi in his most recent fight, he knew that Latifi's best chance against him would be to throw bombs or to get on top of Mousasi and ground-n-pound him.  So Mousasi kept him on the end of his jab throughout the fight, and turned his face into hamburger.

Again, that ability is in short supply.  Fighters who can mold their strategies--and stick to them even when things get rough--have seen great success.  Georges St. Pierre, for instance, has done this for most of his career.

But can Mousasi adjust to Machida?  Jon Jones did.  After losing the first round, he changed his strategy and left Machida lying unconscious on the canvas.  Though Shogun Rua also finished him, he didn't really adapt his style to Machida's.  Rather, he imposed his own style.  Machida was the one who couldn't adapt.

This begs the question: will Mousasi need to adapt?  

It seems the answer is, whether he needs to or not, he is already adapting.  Rumors abound that Mousasi brought in a karate master (who has beaten Machida in karate) to train with to prepare for this bout.  This shows Mousasi is taking the fight seriously.  Depending on how closely this karate master's style replicates Machida's, Mousasi shouldn't be surprised by any of Machida's karate-based attacks on Saturday.

As for Machida, he will likely enter the Octagon with the same strategy he normally uses: keep it on the feet, make his opponent miss, capitalize on mistakes, and maybe sprinkle in some takedowns and submission attempts for good measure.  

If Machida focuses on takedowns, submissions, and ground-n-pound, Mousasi may be in some trouble.  May.  King Mo was able to take him down at will, but did little damage.  Other fighters, like Denis Kang and Jacare, took him down and paid for it.

Machida may be best served by simply using his karate-based attack.  Mousasi is no slouch in the striking department (he boasts an undefeated kickboxing record), but other than in training, he has never faced a guy like Machida.  Machida, on the other hand, has faced guys with good kickboxing-based stand-up.  Only Shogun Rua, who employs a more muay-thai style than Gegard, has clearly beaten Machida on the feet.

But I don't know if Machida has ever faced a jab like Gegard's.  Having a traditional martial arts background myself (though not even in the same galaxy as Machida's--who would curb stomp me in 3 seconds flat), I remember struggling to adjust against guys with a solid jab and boxing background.  In traditional martial arts, we rarely see a sharp, crisp jab popping us in the face.  We see far more backfists and sidekicks in point fighting.

But Machida has been fighting in mixed martial arts for a while now.  Though he started his martial arts career with karate, he has seen and faced a wide variety of styles.  He shouldn't be too surprised by anything Mousasi throws at him.  Again, the exception may be Gegard's jab, which may be the best at 185 pounds.

Something else that may factor into the fight is Gegard's reach.  He has a 76 inch reach, one of the longest Machida has faced.  Jon Jones, of course, had a much longer reach.  Now, some fighters are tall but they fight small.  They prefer to fight on the inside of their opponent even though they could hit them from a distance.  Gegard is not one of those guys.  He sometimes stays right at the distance that works best for him.  Against the shorter Latifi, he kept him at the end of his jab and rarely allowed him to close distance without either popping him with a jab or a cross, or moving out of range.  It was high-level stuff.

Machida, too, makes a practice of fighting at a distance that works for him.  He is notoriously hard to hit.  And he covers distance, perhaps, better than anyone at 185 pounds.  When he sees an opening, he blasts forward to engage, whether he's 3 feet or 9 feet away.  It doesn't matter.

This style often rattles and frustrates Machida's opponents.  Rashad Evans, for instance, seemed to get frustrated.  Then he started making mistakes.  He dropped his hands, started talking smack, and left himself open for Machida's cobra-like strikes.

Mousasi, on the other hand, never seems to get rattled.  Latifi started to jaw at him in Sweden, which made the pro-Latifi crowd roar their approval, but Gegard stared straight through the theatrics and simply kept pounding the late replacement with jabs.  Talk all the smack you want, Gegard doesn't care.  It bores him.  

Much has been made about that bored demeanor.  At times, he looks almost disinterested in the fight, like he's waiting in line at the DMV.  But that disinterest is seen on his face only.  His hands and feet tell a different story.  While his face says, "I couldn't care less," his hands say, "I care, and I'm going to show you how much I care by punching a hole through your face."  We can all rest assured that Mousasi will care on Saturday night.  This fight is the most important of his career.  A win catapults him to the top of the line at 185.  A loss, especially a bad one, will make even more fans wonder what all the hoopla was about.

So who will win?

The smart money is on Machida.  He has faced the better competition.  He has fought in the UFC for years.  He has been a UFC champion.  He has been the consensus number 1 guy in the world.  Mousasi hasn't.  Plus, Mousasi is coming off an injury and the longest layoff of his career.

But I think Mousasi is going to win.

It's a gut feeling more than anything else.  If I had to point to something that will make the difference, it would be to Mousasi's ability to adapt and to change strategy.  I would also point to his reach and his amazing jab.  I believe that jab is going to cause problems for Machida.  Additionally, Gegard has good leg kicks.  If he can use them the way Rua did against Machida, then he could eke out a decision victory.

And I do think this one goes to a decision.  Unless Machida gets reckless and gets caught by a submission, I think he'll survive to the end.  And Mousasi has shown an iron chin, so I don't think Machida knocks him out, either.

Either way, it is an interesting fight.  It may not turn into an exciting fight, since analytical fighters sometimes cancel out one another's offense, but it should be fun to watch from a strategical perspective.

Who knows, maybe they will surprise us.

Until then, keep your hands up and come out fighting.


By the way, do you like short stories?  If so, check out my collection.  It's titled "Big Blue" and is a mix of horror and pulp fiction, available in both paperback and Kindle edition.