The Rise and Fall of Rampage Jackson: Part 1

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson.  Just saying the name brings a smile to my face.  For several years, Rampage was one of the most exciting fighters in the world.  Win or lose, he always put on a show.  If he was on a card, I was going to watch it.  Period.

Rampage truly is one of the old guard of mixed martial arts.  In fact, he competed at a time when they didn't even call it mixed martial arts--not widely, at least.  The more frequently used term back in 1999, when Rampage had his first fight, was no holds barred.  Of course, the term was an exaggeration.  Even back then there were some illegal moves.  You couldn't bite, poke eyes, purposely break someone's fingers, fishhook their mouths, etc.  But it wasn't quite as tame as it is today, that's for sure.

Looking back at his record, I find it a bit ironic that Rampage made his professional debut against a guy I've mentioned in my last two blog posts:

Mike Pyle.

The reason I've mentioned Pyle twice recently is because Pyle is currently a ranked welterweight in the UFC.  He fought and won last weekend, and he is the only man to have defeated John Hathaway, one of the headliners of this weekend's UFC card.

And Rampage fought him, too. Of course, Rampage is much bigger than Pyle.  Pyle fights at 170.  Rampage has to cut weight to make 205 (and doesn't always make the cut...).  And Pyle also was fighting for the first time that night, way back in 1999.

Rampage left with the victory.

Six months later, he fought again, and won via rear naked choke against a man named Marco Bermudaz.  According to the Sherdog record base, that was the one and only time Bermudaz ever fought.  It would also be one of the only times that Rampage would win via choke.  He would pull that off only once more in his career against a man named Kenneth Williams a year later.  But he wouldn't choke Barmudez before he slammed him!

In his third fight, Rampage faced an experienced, muscle bound muay thai fighter named Marvin Eastman.  They fought in a small venue for a small organization called King of the Cage.  The two went at it for three rounds and when the dust had settled, the judges gave the decision to Eastman.  7 years later, Rampage would get a rematch on the biggest stage in the world: The Ultimate Fighting Championship.  Revenge was sweet.  Rampage knocked out Eastman in the 2nd round.  He famously called it, "black on black crime."

But after that first loss to Eastman, Rampage went on a tear, winning his next 8 fights and drawing the attention of the biggest, baddest mma promotion in the world (at the time): The Pride Fighting Championship.  They called him up and asked him to fight Kazushi Sakuraba--on short notice, if I remember correctly.  Sakuraba, for those who don't know, is a legend.  He was the first man to defeat a Gracie in mixed martial arts.  Not only did he defeat Royce Gracie, the man who won the first few UFC's, he also defeated Royler Gracie, Ryan Gracie, and Renzo Gracie.  Though he was coming off a loss to Wanderlei Silva (a legend in his own right), most expected Sakuraba to have little trouble submitting Rampage, the the young brawler with a penchant for slamming people.  He did submit Rampage.  But not before Rampage threw him around like a stuffed animal.

The Japanese fans loved it.  It was like a David and Goliath match, with Sakuraba enduring a horrible beating before finally catching the monstrously powerful Rampage with an armbar.  The Pride brass loved it, too.  They invited Rampage back.

And he went on an awe-inspiring run of destruction.  Other than Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva, there wasn't a more feared fighter in Pride.  Rampage absolutely smashed a bunch of good fighters.  His fight against Igor Vovchanchyn was brutal.  And Vovchanchyn is considered one of the greatest wrecking machines of his time, but Rampage tossed him around as easily as he had tossed the much smaller Sakuraba.

He followed that by pounding out former UFC hotshot, Kevin Randleman.  Those were both huge wins over huge names.  Before his streak was over, he would notch wins over two more UFC champions: Murilo Bustamante and the legendary Chuck Liddell.

Liddell had come over as part of a deal the UFC had made with Pride.  The UFC agreed to bring some of their guys over to Pride and fight under their rules and their banner.  In return, Pride was supposed to send some of their guys over to the UFC to fight under its rules and its banner.  The UFC held up their end of the deal.  Pride did not.

Liddell entered the tournament as one of the favorites.  His first round match was against current heavyweight contender, Alistair Overeem.  Overeem gave him trouble for awhile, but then Chuck landed a haymaker that put Overeem on wobbly legs.  Once Chuck smelled blood, it was a wrap.  He swarmed and finished the Dutchman with a furious combination of punches.

But then he ran into Rampage.  This Rampage may very well have been the best version of Rampage we would ever see.  He had already faced a slew of great fighters and had beaten almost all of them.  Even in his losses, he had looked good.  No one had really "beaten him up."  So when he stepped into the ring against UFC poster boy, Chuck Liddell, he was ready to win.

And win he did.

He stopped Chuck in the second round.  UFC president Dana White was ringside, furious at his fighter's performance.  He famously stated that Chuck hadn't "followed our game plan," as if he had been the one forming a fight strategy and implying that Chuck was just too stupid to stick to it.

It was a special night for Rampage.  He would have to fight once more that evening, and it would be for the most prestigious mma tournament title in the world: The Pride Middleweight Grand Prix.  But the man he would face for the Grand Prix title was none other than Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva--the current Middleweight champion, and the only guy in the world who was more feared than Rampage.

Silva had just finished a fight of his own, winning a decision over the Japanese gold medal-winning-judoka, Hidehiko Yoshida.  So neither man was fresh or without minor injuries.  All the same, they came into the ring ready to go to war.  As a fan, I can't remember a mixed martial arts fight that had me more excited (maybe Fedor vs Cro Cop, but it's close).  The two scariest 205 pounders in the world faced each other that night.  And they gave us a great fight.

Though Rampage fought well, Wanderlei was in his absolute prime.  He was a beast.  He trapped Rampage in a vicious muay thai plum (basically, he had his hands wrapped around Rampage's head, fingers laced together), and drove one piston-like knee after another into Rampage's face.  I lost count at 17 unanswered knee-strikes.  Eventually, Rampage sagged against the ropes, out on his feet, and the referee stopped the fight.  Wanderlei was not only the middleweight champion then, he was the Grand Prix champion, too.

And Rampage had, for the first time, gotten his butt kicked.

He didn't let the loss deter him.  He went back to work and soon faced Japanese pro-wrestler, Ikuhisa "The Punk" Minowa.  Minowa was a crowd favorite, and a good fighter, but he was no match for Rampage.  Rampage pounded him out in the second round.

Then came the fight.  Of all the legendary fights Rampage had over his career, this one made the biggest impression.  He faced Ricardo Arona.  Arona was a Brazilian jiu-jitsu master and one of the best wrestlers in the world.  He had already notched wins over stars like Jeremy Horn, Guy Mezger, "Ninja" Rua, and the legendary Dan Henderson.  He had even faced the heavyweight greatest of all time--Fedor Emelianenko--and lost a controversial decision.  To this day, many fans argue that he should have been given the decision over Fedor.

So was it any surprise that many thought he would use his wrestling to take Rampage down and then use his jiu-jitsu to twist him into a pretzel?  The fight began, and Arona set the pace.  He slammed Rampage time and again with leg kicks.  He hit him so hard and so often, Rampage had difficulty staying on his feet.

Eventually, Rampage managed to get Arona on his back.  After losing most of the round, he finally had a chance to do some damage!  But Arona slapped his legs around Rampage's neck and locked-up a triangle choke.  As I watched, I remember thinking, Oh, no...

You see, I was rooting for Rampage.  I won't deny it.  I wanted him to win and I wanted him to have a rematch with Wanderlei Silva.  But when Arona tightened up the choke, I thought it was all over.  But Rampage had a different idea.

He lifted Arona--who was HUGE, by the way--up over his head, and then slammed him down with all the force of a Titan.  He followed up with a sledgehammer right hand, and put Arona to sleep.

Here is the clip of that historic slam.  Watch it.  Savor it.  Be sure to tell your friends to click on this blog to see it.

Check back with me tomorrow for part 2 of The Rise and Fall of Rampage Jackson, where I will tell you what happened next...

And don't forget that he fights tonight for Bellator on Spike TV.

Until then.

UFC Fight Night 37, Fight Pass, and the Good Ol' Days

This Saturday marks yet another UFC Fight Night.  But you won't be seeing this one on Fox Sports 1, or on Fox.  It is a UFC Fight Pass exclusive.  What the heck is that, you ask?  It is the UFC's new online subscription service.  It gives customers behind the scenes looks at each event, and access to their library of fights.  At least, some of them.  Right now, there's not a ton of fights available.  But the brass claim they're going to eventually upload every past UFC fight, plus all the fights from organizations they have purchased such as the Pride Fighting Championships and Strike Force.

If they do that, the $10 per month cost will be well worth it to an mma fan.  Especially when you consider that future UFC cards will air most of their preliminary fights on Fight Pass, as well as entire cards like the one this weekend.  The Pride library of fights alone is worth the subscription price, seeing as how you could watch some true legends like Rickson Gracie, Fedor Emelianenko, Wanderlei Silva, Rampage Jackson, Kazushi Sakuraba, Mirko Cro Cop, etc.--all in their primes!  Thinking about those guys makes me think of the good ol' days, back at a time when the center of the mixed martial arts world wasn't located in Las Vegas, but in Tokyo.

People forget that the UFC wasn't always the greatest mma organization in the world.  UFC was great.  They were like a gourmet hamburger.  But the Pride Fighting Championship was like a filet mignon smothered in butter.  For years, the best fighters fought for Pride, whose Japanese owners had deep pockets and were willing to empty them for the fighters.  Several competitors became millionaires fighting for Pride.

But rumors were rampant that Pride was mixed up with the yakuza, or Japanese mafia.  When the word got out, things started going south for the company.  Government officials started investigations, and fighters began to complain about not getting paid.  Then Zuffa (owners of the UFC) stepped in to put a final nail in the coffin of the one organization that had always been considered a little bit better than the UFC.  Zuffa bought Pride, claiming they weren't going to shut it down, that they would actually continue to have fights held under the Pride banner.

But they didn't.  After the buyout, Pride never held another event.  That was in 2007, and old school fans still haven't gotten over it.

Some of the best fighters from Pride came over to the UFC.  Some of them still fight for them.  Big names included: Dan Henderson, the Nogueira brothers, Wanderlei Silva, Shogun Rua, Heath Herring, and Takanori Gomi.  Many other former Pride fighters eventually made their way over to the UFC.  Names like Alistair Overeem, Denis Kang, Gegard Mousasi, Tatsuya Kawajiri, and, of course, Anderson Silva.

I refer to those years between 1997 and 2007 as "the good ol' days" not because today's fighting climate stinks.  Today's climate is pretty darned good, actually, and I'll talk more about that in a moment.  But those years that straddled the millennium were filled with amazing fights.  They had Fedor vs Cro Cop, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Bob Sapp, Wanderlei Silva vs Rampage Jackson, Fedor vs Randleman, Rampage Jackson vs Ricardo Arona, Royce Gracie vs Kazushi Sakuraba, Igor Vovchanchyn vs Enson Inoue, Wanderlei Silva vs Guy Mezger, Rickson Gracie vs Nobuhiko Takada--the list goes on and on.

It was an amazing time for fans because we were able to watch a sport in its infancy grow into adolescence.  Modern mixed martial arts, for North Americans at least, began in 1993, when the first UFC aired.  Yes, other countries had put on "no holds barred" fights for years before that.  In Brazil, they called them vale tudo matches.  But the sport didn't take off for us until it occurred in the United States.  Overnight, our beliefs on what made an effective fighting art were turned upside down.

We learned that pure striking arts like karate and boxing were woefully inadequate once the fight went to the ground.  And we also learned that almost every fight went to the ground eventually.  Brazilian jiu-jitsu, as used by Royce Gracie, looked to be the perfect martial art.  At least for a few years.  Then we learned that wrestlers with submission defense could put a real beating on jiu-jitsu guys.  Then we learned that kickboxers with takedown and submission defense could put a real beating on all of them.

Today we've learned that a mixed martial artist has got to know how to do everything well.  They have to strike, wrestle, submit, and defend against all of it.  Game plans and strategy matter more than ever.  It's taken over 20 years for our sport to evolve to where it is today.  20 years may sound like a lot, but it doesn't when compared to other sports like soccer, basketball, baseball, and its close cousin, boxing.

Boxing has been around for hundreds of years.  Some would argue that boxing is no longer evolving, but is regressing.  For instance, I could point you to fights that occurred shortly before and after 1900 and you would see boxers fighting with a very different style than they do today.  Then I could point you to fights that occurred in the 1940's and you would see, in my opinion, boxing technique at its absolutely most refined stage.  One viewing of Sugar Ray Robinson should be more than enough to convince any objective viewer.  Today's boxers have hundreds of years of evolution and fight tapes to draw from.  Their technique is still refined, but their level of opposition has declined over the last 50 years.  In the 40's, only 2 sports really mattered in North America: baseball and boxing.  If you wanted to make a living as a professional athlete, you competed in one of those sports.  Basketball and football were still in their infancy--like mma has been for most of its young life.

Consequently, there were boxing gyms on every corner.  To become a world champion, one had to face true monsters--guys who had tested themselves against the best from a huge talent pool.  Today, there isn't a pool, so much as a puddle.  The best athletes of today rarely choose to take punches for a living.  Guys like Lebron James may have boxed back in the 1940's.  Today, he's winning NBA championships.  There's more money in it, and it hurts less.

As the money gets better in mixed martial arts, we should see more and more people willing to participate.  But with that being said, most people who become fighters have a genuine need to fight.  Guys like Chuck Liddell would have fought for free back when he was just getting into it, and, indeed, many of his early paychecks were laughable.  But he didn't care.  He was fighting, and there's something about the give and take of hand to hand combat that is exhilarating.  Intoxicating.  Some fighters never get enough of it.

Guys like him are willing to take the pain of daily training.  They have unimaginable pain tolerances.  The long runs, the punches to the nose, the hyper-extended ligaments, the big guys grinding you into the floor.  And the constant injuries.  They say every fighter goes into the cage with an injury.  Every fighter.

I don't know about you, but when I have something as minor as an ingrown toenail, I can barely make myself walk.  These guys fight with far worse injuries.  And you can't tell by looking at them.  To us, they look fine!  They bounce on their toes, throw kicks with real power, shoot deep for double legs--all the things we would expect from an uninjured fighter.  But then we find out afterwards that they were suffering from a blown-out knee or a separated shoulder.  It's astounding.

This weekend, Dong Hyun Kim and John Hathaway will step into the cage with nagging injuries.  They won't talk about them.  That's considered bad manners.  No, they'll step into the cage already hurting and then they will do their best to bring more hurt to one another.  It should be noted that the point isn't to hurt their opponent.  The point is to win.  But they happen to compete in a sport where winning requires hurting another person.  Even so, few fighters are cruel individuals.  Most would prefer to win quickly, without hurting their opponent much at all.  But they're willing to hurt them if they must.  And, so often, they must.

Despite Kim's last fight, where he knocked out Brazilian heart throb, Eric Silva, with one punch, he is not a knockout artist.  Most of his wins have come by suffocating opponents with wrestling.  Few men have been able to deal with it.  Demian Maia did.  As did Carlos Condit.  But those guys are top of the food chain fighters.  Besides those losses, the "Stun Gun" has beaten some legitimate fighters

John Hathaway's results have been similar.  He rarely knocks anyone out.  He rarely submits anyone.  But, except for his loss to "Super Mullet" Mike Pyle, he always wins.  He can be forgiven that loss to Pyle, who is an excellent veteran we watched this past weekend beat a different up and comer.  In fact, he darn near killed him.

The Pyle fight aside, Hathaway's best wins have been against Diego Sanchez and Rick Story.  Those are good wins, by the way.  When he handled Sanchez, I was excited about the young man's potential. He looked great in that fight.  When he faced Pyle, I expected him to be too much for the old veteran.  Pyle proved me wrong, of course, winning a unanimous decision over Hathaway.  Since then, Hathaway has had some injuries that have kept him from fighting as often as he would have liked.  All the same, he is on a 3-fight win streak.  But he hasn't fought since 2012.

Kim is the best fighter Hathaway will have ever faced.  But Hathaway is not the best fighter Kim will have ever faced.  Carlos Condit, Demian Maia, Paulo Thiago, Nate Diaz, Matt Brown--all of these guys have accomplished more in the cage than Hathaway has.  And Kim has fought all of them.

Because of this, and because of the long layoff for Hathaway, I predict Dong Hyun Kim will grind out a unanimous decision.  If you've got Fight Pass, you can watch it live.  Saturday morning, for you East Coasters like me, since it's being held in China.

Dong Hyun Kim Unanimous Decision John Hathaway.

The rest of the card is filled with fighters who I'm not truly familiar with.  I know Matt Mitrione and Hatsu Hioki, but I'm not real familiar with their opponents, so I won't make any predictions for their fights.  I've heard that Mitrione's opponent, Shawn Jordan, is a banger, which probably plays into the hands of Mitrione, whose striking is darned good and whose reach is far longer than Jordan's.  If I was forced to pick a winner, which I am not, I would go with Mitrione.

Hatsu Hioki was once considered the #2 featherweight in the world, but he has lost 3 straight.  His opponent, Ivan Menjivar, has lost 3 of his last 4.  Again, if I was forced to pick a winner, which I am not, I would go with Hioki.  But we'll see.

Until next time.






 

UFC 170: Post Fight Thoughts

I'm a happy man.  Tomorrow is my birthday.  Oh, wait.  It's 12:02 am.  Today is my birthday.  And I just watched a satisfying evening of fights, thanks to The UFC, and a bunch of great fighters.

Kudos to the main card fighters.  They all brought it.  ALL of them.  Yes, even the ones who lost quickly. Let's start with the first fight.  But before I do, let's talk about my fight predictions, shall we?  Since I got back into this blogging thing a few weeks ago, I have successfully predicted the winner in every fight but one. 

All but one.  

If you feel like laying down cash on a fight, I might be someone you'd want to check in with first.  With that being said, I still have a long way to go before I will have a genuinely acceptable data base to judge.  Though I've been watching combat sports fanatically for almost 30 years (I'm 39 today), I've only been blogging seriously for a few weeks.  So you might want to see how I do in the future.  But so far, I am batting way over .300.  Do with that what you will.

So let's look at each main card fight.  

Stephen Thompson vs Robert Whittaker.

Well, I was right that "Wonder Boy's" striking was on another level.  I was also right that Whittaker, being the tough-as-nails man that he is, would come straight at Wonder Boy. And Wonder Boy did what I thought he would do.

Win.

But I didn't think he would knockout the Australian Ultimate Fighter.  So props to Wonder Boy for performing even better than expected.  However, he fought a guy who was happy to play his game.  Let's see what happens when Wonder Boy fights a high-level wrestler/submission artist.  If he can get past that hurdle, then he may be ready for a main event.  Again, though, props for a sensational performance against a solid opponent.

Mike Kyle vs T.J. Waldburger

Well, this was better than I expected.  Waldburger came to win.  His striking was much better than I anticipated.  For the first two rounds, he more than held his own on his feet against the older, and far more experienced, Pyle.

But as I predicted, Pyle was just too crafty.  He's been around this game for a long time.  He has spent countless hours training against high-level mixed martial artists.  Consequently, he was able to nail the younger and more explosive fighter with shots that most guys wouldn't have even thrown.

By the end of the fight, Pyle had Waldburger in a world of trouble.  He had him mounted, and was raining down elbows and vicious punches.  And Herb Dean let him do it for far too long.

I have always defended Herb when fans got stupid about his calls.  After all, being a referee is a thankless job.  You're darned if you do, and darned if you don't.  I get it.  I do.

But Herb screwed up tonight.

Pyle could have killed Waldburger.  Seconds matter when someone is getting their brains bounced against their skulls.  And Waldburger had his brain rattled way more than Urijah Faber did against Renan Barao.  Dean stopped that fight in plenty of time.  Some say he stopped it far too early.  But this one was too late.  

Own that, Herb.  Take a break.  Get your head on straight.  I know the constant criticism must mess with a referee's mind, but the stakes are too high to get it wrong as often as you have lately.

Rory McDonald vs Demian Maia

What a great fight!  Demian came out in the first round and showed the world why he is such a scary dude.  He took McDonald down, even though McDonald knew he was going to try. McDonald had the lowest stance I've ever seen him use.  That was to help him stuff take down attempts.  But it didn't stop the take down in round one.

Maia took him down and stayed on top of him for most of it.  McDonald was forced to play defense.  Though Maia wasn't able to hit a fight-ending submission, it was still a dominant round for the submission master.

Then we had the 2nd round.  McDonald came out popping the jab--as I predicted--and landing hard kicks to the body.  They paid dividends immediately.  Maia looked spent. Almost every clean shot from Rory seemed to hurt him.  That 2nd round was a showcase of Rory's striking skills.  He beat the heck out of Demian Maia in the 2nd round.

In the 3rd, it looked like we'd see more of the same.  Rory popped the jab.  He slammed home kicks.  But then Demian dug deep, found one last reserve of strength, and then hoisted Rory off his feet and planted him on his back.

It was a turning point.  Each fighter had one dominant round in the bank.  Maia won the 1st round.  McDonald won the 2nd.  McDonald had been winning up until Maia got the take down.

So what would Maia do with it?  The answer was: not enough.

McDonald weathered the storm, avoided submissions, and hopped to his feet.  Then he punished Maia with punches and kicks for the rest of the round.  When the judges gave him a unanimous decision, it came as no surprise.

With the win, Rory is back in title contention, and Demian is back to the drawing board.  At 36 years of age, Demian should probably spend some serious time reflecting on the loss.  Does he have enough left to make a run at the title?  If not, should he keep fighting?  Most fighters never become world champions.  In my opinion, Demian can still beat many guys at 170 pounds.  But he took some serious punishment tonight.  Who knows how much he has taken in the gym?  It may be time for him to consider hanging up the gloves.  From what I've heard, he would be a great trainer.

Daniel Cormier vs Patrick Cummins.

Well, this played out the way I expected it would, though Daniel finished things a bit quicker than I predicted.  However, in that short time Cummings showed good hand speed and solid take down defense.  It was his chin and Daniel's punches that did him in.

Before Daniel landed a nasty inside uppercut, Patrick looked great.  His jab was fast and crisp, as were his leg kicks.  He also stuffed Daniel's take downs.  But I guess he didn't count on Daniel's hands being so fast or so powerful.

Daniel rocked him early and put him away a short time later.  The stoppage may have been a tad early, but I doubt the outcome would have been any different if it hadn't been stopped when it was.

So my biggest question is: how good is Cummings' chin?  Daniel Cormier hits hard.  Maybe Patrick can take the punches from lesser UFC fighters.  If so, he has potential.  His wrestling, speed, and striking technique was solid.  Because of that, I am looking forward to his next fight.

As for Daniel, can we just put him in with the champion, Jon Jones, already?  Everyone knows this fight will eventually happen.  Let's do it.  Daniel looks ready.  If Jones defeats Glover Teixeira at UFC 172, let's just do this thing.  They have talked smack on Twitter.  Everyone considers it a legitimate contest.  Let's make it happen.

Ronda Rousey vs Sara McMann

What did we learn from this fight?  We learned that Rousey's punching isn't yet as good as it's rumored to be in the gym.  We also learned that her knee strikes from the clinch are far better than we knew.  Sara landed some good punches on Ronda in the short time they fought.  But once Ronda pushed Sara against the cage, it took only a few knee strikes to make Sara wilt.

Ronda drove her left knee into Sara's stomach, and Sara dropped.  Herb Dean, having just waited far too long to stop a contest between Mike Pyle and T.J. Waldburger, decided to make up for it by stopping a contest far too early.  Almost as soon as Sara hit the canvas, he was waving it off.

Sara wasn't nearly in as much danger as Waldburger was.  Waldburger was taking repeated blows to the head.  That's something that can kill you.  Sara had taken a couple knees to the midsection.  That hurts like a son-of-a-gun.  I know.  I've been there and done that.  But while it may knock the air out of you, it isn't likely to kill you.

She deserved more time.  That's the long and short of it.  Do I think it would have changed anything?  No.  Rousey it a monstrous finisher.  But Sara was fighting for a world championship.  It's probably the last she will ever get.  And Herb stopped it before she had even finished falling.

He didn't give her a chance to grab Rousey's legs or to tie up Rousey's hands.  He just stopped it.

And that sucks.

All the same, Rousey got the job done and deserves some credit for it.  We've never seen her throw knees in the clinch with that much power.  From the look of things, she is truly becoming a mixed martial artist.  And that is a scary prospect.

Well, I hope you all enjoyed the fights as much as I did.  Take care, and enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Until next time.

UFC 170: Undercard Predictions

In my last two posts, I gave my take on the main events of UFC 170.  If you read them, you know I expect Ronda Rousey and Daniel Cormier to win their fights tonight.  But what about the other fights?  Well, I have a take on some of them, too.

Let's chat first about Rory "Canadian Psycho" McDonald (I gave him that nickname) versus Demian Maia.  This is an intriguing matchup for several reasons.  The first reason is that these guys are two of the very best fighters in the world at 170 pounds.  Any time I get to see high-level mma, I get excited.

The second reason is that they're both coming off losses, and guys coming off losses typically fight with a greater sense of urgency than guys coming off win-streaks.  They want to keep their jobs.  And the UFC has been pretty quick to axe losing fighters.

Of the two, Rory may have taken his loss the best.  In an interview following his split decision defeat to veteran, Robbie Lawler, he sounded almost relieved.  Rory was being hailed as the next Georges St. Pierre.  Expectations were crazy high, as was the pressure to perform.  Now, with a loss, he feels like he can simply concentrate on fighting.

Demian Maia, on the other hand, had to feel a lot more frustration after his loss to Jake Shields.  Maia had been scratching and clawing his way back up the ranks, looking to find one more title shot before he called it quits.  In his previous title shot, he fought at Middleweight, 15 pounds heavier, and against the greatest of all time: Anderson Silva. Silva beat him up.  Since then, he had managed to win a few fights, got within smelling distance of a title shot, and then lost again.  That happened 3 times since he fought Silva.  This is probably his last run.

For those unfamiliar with Maia, his name is always thrown into the mix when debating who the best submission fighter in mma is.  He has won both the Abu Dhabi Combat Championships and the Mundials, two of the most prestigious tournaments in submission wrestling.  If it goes to the ground, Maia is a real threat to finish things quickly.  Frank Mir, who is often called the best submission fighter at heavyweight, said, "I thought I was actually good at it until I started rolling with him."  Again, that's coming from Frank Mir, who owns two of the most brutal submission victories in history.  Care to see them?

And here's his bone-breaking, title-winning performance against Tim Sylvia.  Click on the word "here's" in the previous sentence and you won't be disappointed.

So, yeah.  That guy doesn't think he's good after rolling with Maia.  Pretty scary, huh?

But Maia has started to rely more and more on his striking, which is solid, but nowhere in the same galaxy as his submission game.  Against Silva, he couldn't get the fight to the ground.  Against Rory, he may find himself in the same situation.

Rory McDonald has great takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Jake Ellenberger.  And when he's standing, he's usually winning.  The only guys to have gotten the better of him in striking have been guys with one-punch knockout power: Carlos Condit and Robbie Lawler.  Maia hasn't shown that he has that.

I think Rory will stuff Maia's takedowns and pound his face all night with jabs and crosses.

Rory McDonald Unanimous Decision over Demian Maia

Also on the undercard is the return of "Super Mullet" Mike Pyle.  Pyle is a true veteran who knows how to do it all.  I expect him to get back on the winning track against T.J. Waldburger.

Mike Pyle Unanimous Decision over T.J. Waldburger

And my final take is on the main card's opening bout.  It's a beauty.  The Ultimate Fighter: Smashes winner, Robert Whittaker versus "Wonder Boy" Stephen Thompson.

This is an awesome matchup!  Whittaker is a stud.  He looked great on The Ultimate Fighter and was truly impressive in trouncing fellow Ultimate Fighter winner, Colton Smith.  Whittaker is coming off a razor-thin split decision loss to yet another Ultimate Fighter winner, Court McGee.  I expect him to go right after Thompson.

That could be a mistake.  Wonder Boy had a stellar kickboxing career, having gone undefeated in 37 amateur and 20 professional kickboxing matches.  He also fought for Chuck Norris's World Combat League, and was ranked #1.  So he has Chuck's approval.  And who doesn't want Chuck's approval?  After all, Chuck Norris has a grizzly bear carpet in his living room.  The grizzly isn't dead, it's just afraid to move.

Sorry.  Couldn't help myself.

To make up for it, here is a tasty clip of Thompson kicking someone in the face:

I expect Whittaker to move forward and try to out strike the kickboxing phenom.  He'll attempt this because he is all man.  But this will be foolish.  Thompson's striking is on another level, and we'll get to see it tonight as Whittaker plays Thompson's game and loses.

Stephen "Wonder Boy" Thompson Unanimous Decision over Robert Whittaker.

So there you have it, ladies and gentlemen.  Enjoy the fights, and we'll talk again soon.

Until then.

UFC 170: Cormier vs Cummins

Daniel Cormier and Patrick Cummins.  Two old friends reunited!

Not quite.

Daniel Cormier is an undefeated former top ten heavyweight contender who is moving down to 205 pounds for the first time in his career tonight.  Patrick Cummins is a last-minute replacement for the injured "Sugar" Rashad Evans.  He is also a former training partner and wrestling opponent of Daniel Cormier's.

According to Cummins, he used to make Cormier cry in training.  And when Patrick and Daniel were interviewed on television, Daniel did not deny it.  Instead, he explained that back when they trained together, the entire training camp was centered around him.  He was preparing for the Olympics.  Consequently, they tortured him in practice, making him wrestle one guy after another until he couldn't move.  His opponents were all rested.  He, obviously, was not.  But more importantly than the physical fatigue, Daniel was dealing with a most heart-wrenching personal matter.

He lost a child.

As a father of two, I would forgive almost any behavior from a man who had just suffered the death of his child.  He cried while getting beat on in the gym?  So what!?!  I'm surprised he wasn't crying while simply walking to the gym.

That Patrick would use Daniel's grief as a marketing tool to get noticed by the UFC is pretty rotten.  It worked, so mission accomplished, Pat, Ol' Boy.  Let me explain.  Just a few weeks ago, Patrick Cummins was working at a coffee shop.  That's right.  A coffee shop.  Being a former felon somewhat limits one's career choices.  His mixed martial arts career has been good, but there hasn't been much of it.  As a two-time all american wrestler, he has found it hard to get fights.  Not many guys want to face him.  So he has only fought four times as a professional, and he has won all four times.  And he has been telling anyone who will listen that he used to beat the crap out of top ten heavyweight, Daniel Cormier.

Someone with connections to UFC President, Dana White, listened to him.  And when Rashad Evans had to pull out of his fight with Cormier at the last minute, Dana White said, "Get that kid on the phone."

So Patrick's manager called the coffee shop, hoping to let Patrick speak with Dana--the most powerful man in mixed martial arts, the Godfather of the sport.  But Patrick's coffee shop boss wouldn't let him take the call.  In fact, he said, "Take that call and you're fired."

Patrick took the call.

And got a promotion.  Tonight, he will have a chance to back up all his smack talk.  And he will probably make half a year's coffee shop salary or more when he does it.

But when it's over, I wonder if he'll think it was worth it?  Daniel Cormier is legit.  He trains every day with the baddest man on the planet, Cain Velasquez.  And from what we're told, he holds his own.  As a professional, he has wins over some top ten fighters like Antonio "Big Foot" Silva, Roy "Big Country" Nelson, and former UFC champion, Josh Barnett.  He also beat up Frank Mir.

Plus, he's angry.  For the first time, he has had to make a weight cut down to 205 pounds.  Fighters are notoriously cranky when they cut weight.  Can you imagine how cranky a guy is if he's doing it for the first time?  And he had considered Patrick Cummins a friendly acquaintance, if not an actual friend.  But this friend broke one of the golden rules and blabbed about what happened in the gym.  Every fighter knows that the gym is like Las Vegas.  What happens there, stays there.  To tell others what you did to a training partner in sparring is serious weak sauce.  Daniel now has genuine dislike for his old training partner.  And Daniel is scary enough when he likes his opponents.

I predict a bad night for Patrick Cummins.  Daniel will put him to sleep with strikes in the second round.

Daniel Cormier TKO Patrick Cummins Round 2

Until next time.

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann

Boy, oh, boy!  UFC 170 is this weekend and, once again, I am excited.  The card is headlined by the most popular female fighter in the world, "Rowdy" Ronda Rousey.  If you haven't seen Rousey fight, what are you waiting for?  She has won all 8 of her fights by armbar.  And, having earned an Olympic bronze medal in judo, Rousey throws her opponents around like they're stuffed animals.  It's dominant, alpha woman stuff.

Her opponent on Saturday, Sara McMann, is also an Olympian, but in wrestling.  And she did one better than Rousey.  She earned a silver medal.  Never before has Rousey faced that caliber of wrestler in the mma arena.  For the first time, she may face someone who is better than she is at controlling opponents on the ground.

And that's what makes this matchup so interesting.  What happens when a truly world class judoka runs into a truly world class wrestler?  Well, we get to find out.  McMann may actually stuff all of Rousey's throw attempts.  She might wind up on top of Rousey and have some opportunity to drop some crushing elbows.  Rousey might be surprised by McMann's strength.  Winning an Olympic silver medal in wrestling requires unbelievable fortitude.  Wrestlers put themselves through misery during training and during their competitions, where they're often having to cut weight multiple times in a single weekend.  McMann has been there, done that, got the t-shirt, and power doubled the fool who was wearing it.  Her strength will be on a different level than any female Rousey has faced.  How will Rousey react to that?

With that being said, nothing in this world will prepare McMann for the Tazmanian Devil she's going to face on Saturday.  Nothing.  Rousey can at least train with men to simulate McMann's strength advantage.  There's no one in the world who has Rousey's judo, coupled with her crazy armbar, tripled by her win at all costs attitude.  If McMann takes Rousey down, she'll be in constant trouble, since Rousey can hit that armbar from any position.  If McMann clinches with Rousey, she may be going for a ride, since she will likely have never faced someone with the judo chops Rousey has.

But what happens if they decide to stand and bang?  Could that happen?  Rousey has always taken the fight to the ground.  She has thrown strikes only long enough to close distance.  McMann also looks to take the fight to the ground.  But maybe for the first time in her career, Rousey will have a striking advantage over her opponent.  Rumors abound that Rousey is getting better and better with her hands, that she is dropping world class female boxers in the gym with body blows.  Videos of her working mitts and shadow boxing show a gal who knows how to throw punches in combination.  What if she decides to show off what she's learned against a gal who has even more to learn about punching?  And what if that gal also wants to stand and trade because she fears that going to the ground with Rousey will end with her getting her arm hyperextended?

I'll tell you what might happen: this could turn into a boxing match!  If so, it probably won't be a good one.  These gals are ground fighters by trade.  When ground fighters box, it usually turns into a sloppy mess.  Not always, but usually.  Could be fun to watch, all the same.

But I believe these two are destined to hit the ground.  When they do, McMann may stifle Rousey's offense for a round or two, may even win a round or two.  But Rousey is the most tenacious athlete I've seen in mma.  She will be offended by McMann's winning, and that will tick her off.  A ticked off Rousey is a frightening thing.

Like she said recently, "I can tell that this title is not as important to [McMann] as it is to me.  She has a kid at home, and she has to go home to that kid.  I can afford to be selfish, where she can't.  I'm willing to die in there, and she can't."

And after having watched her fight and coach The Ultimate Fighter, I believe her.  She doesn't look at an mma match as a sporting event.  She looks at it as a fight.  A war.  Losing, to her, is the same thing as death.
"On paper, [McMann's] an amazing athlete, and athletically you could say we're very close to equals, and that's why people are so excited about this fight," Rousey said.  "But I think I'm more of a fighter than she is."

So do I.

Expect those armbar attempts to come nonstop.  Eventually, she will catch her fellow Olympian with one.

Prediction: Rousey by submission Round 3.

Until next time.

On Ben Askren

So, I got to thinking about Ben Askren today, about how he was released by Bellator even though he was their undefeated champion, about how the UFC declined to sign him, and about how he eventually signed with OneFC, a smaller mma organization based in Singapore.  And at the end of all that thinking, I felt a deep disappointment.

Ben Askren, for those who are unfamiliar with him, is arguably the greatest wrestler in mixed martial arts.  In high school, he won the state championships.  Twice.  In college, he wrestled for the University of Missouri, where he made it to the NCAA championship match ALL 4 YEARS.  That's right, he was in the finals every year of his collegiate career.  He lost in his Freshman and Sophmore years before winning in both his Junior and Senior years of college.  In both years when he won the national title, he went undefeated.  That's right, he had over 80 wrestling matches without a defeat.

He finished college with an overall record of 153-8.  91 of those 153 wins were pins, which puts him third in the all time pins list.  ALL TIMES.

If that wasn't enough, Ben then made the 2008 Olympic team.  He won his first match by pin, but was then defeated soundly by Cuba's Ivan Fundora.  This ended his dreams of an Olympic medal.  Some thought that Ben's inexperience in freestyle wrestling was his downfall, since he had wrestled folkstyle in college.  But according to his Wikipedia page, Ben made no excuses.  Instead, with tears in his eyes, he said, "That wasn't it.  I just wasn't good enough.  I sucked."

After that, Ben decided to take his world class wrestling skills into the mixed martial arts arena.  So far, his record is spotless.  12 wins.  No defeats.  While fighting for Bellator, he dominated his competition (except for veteran, Jay Hieron, who gave him a stiff test) so thoroughly, the fights were widely panned as boring.  The other guys had no chance.  But while Ben completely owned the competition, he had a difficult time finishing them.  Once he got his hands on an opponent, they were going wherever he wanted them to, but he could pound on them all night, turn their faces into hamburger, and still fail to knock them out.

Consequently, he wasn't the most beloved Bellator employee.  He may have been one of the best welterweights in the world, but he wasn't pulling the ratings they were looking for.  Bellator wanted knockouts, like the ones delivered by Douglas Lima.  See the clip below:

Guess what?  You see the guy landing a vicious head kick knockout above?  You do?  Well, Ben Askren rag-dolled him.  It wasn't even competitive.  Ben put him on his back and kept him there.  Pounded on his face all night.  But the casual fan--and even some hard core fans--thought it was boring.

So when Ben's contract ran out, Bellator didn't resign him.  They let their champion walk.

Ben and the rest of the mma world expected him to be signed by the UFC.  After all, it was clear he had some of the best wrestling chops in the business, and wrestling is arguably the best base a mixed martial artist can have.  Many fans and experts believed he would fit right in with the UFC's 170 pound contenders.  I am one of those.

And though he met with UFC owners, they did not come to an agreement.  UFC president, Dana White, said Ben needed to go to the World Series of Fighting promotion where he could actually face some good competition, and that he wasn't ready for the big leagues.

Now, many have flamed Dana and the UFC for this decision.  They say the UFC can't claim to have the best fighters if they're not signing a guy like Askren.  They say that Dana's comment about Ben not being ready for the competition in the UFC is just a smoke screen--that the real reason for not signing Ben is they couldn't risk signing a Bellator guy who might come in and wreck their division.  It would make Bellator look good at the UFC's expense.

I tend to agree with those guys.  Dana's comments were insincere.  But from a business point of view, I find it hard to fault their decision.  Ben had the potential to beat some big names.  That would have made Bellator look great, and Bellator is in the UFC's cross-hairs.  They would love to see Bellator fail the way so many of the UFC's rivals have failed in the past.

Plus, the UFC already receives truck loads of criticism any time one of their cards is filled with decisions instead of knockouts and submissions.  Their last two cards, for instance, have set the record, and then tied the record, for most decisions.  And what was the fan response?  UFC sucks!  I'm never buying another pay-per-view!  This is watered down garbage!

If the UFC is constantly being criticized when their fights end with decisions, should it surprise anyone when they don't sign a guy who is infamous for his inability to finish?

So, again, from a business stand point, I get it.  But from a purist's stand point, I don't.  As a purist, as a guy who loves to watch high-level mixed martial arts, I want to see the best guys in the world fight each other.  From what I've seen, Ben Askren is one of those guys.  For that reason alone, he should be in the UFC, where the best 170 pound fighters ply their trade.

Would he beat everyone?  I don't know.  I haven't seen him fight against the caliber of opponents he would face in the UFC.  He might get in there and get his head ripped off by Carlos Condit, or have his limbs twisted into knots by Damien Maia.  Or he might do to them what he has done to almost every man he's faced so far: put them on their backs and grind them into the canvas.  And keep this in mind: Ben is getting better at finishing fights.  In fact, he has finished his last two fights.  Not because he knocked his opponents unconscious, but because he was throwing them such a severe beating, the referee or the doctor decided they had to stop it.  For their own safety.  In other words, they were worried that Ben might beat them to death.

So the two biggest mma promotions in North America passed on Ben, but the biggest mma promotion in Asia did not.  One Fighting Championship, or OneFC, signed him.  I expect he'll dominate the competition there just as he dominated it in Bellator.  Who knows?  Maybe when his contract expires in a few years, the UFC will take a chance and sign the man.  Or then again, he might be surprised by the level of talent in Asia.  Perhaps he'll run into a guy who has the answer to his wrestling.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Until next time.

Machida Versus Mousasi: Post Fight Thoughts

Here in North Carolina it is 1:22 am.  Well past my bed time.  But I just finished watching Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida's masterful performance against Gegard Mousasi and sleep will have to wait.  Prior to the fight, I wondered if their styles would make for an exciting match or a boring one.  The answer, for me at least, was neither.  It was both interesting and frustrating to watch.  I was never bored, but I was rarely excited.

The exciting parts were courtesy of Lyoto, who was great.  He did his thing, and stuck to the karate style that has brought him so much success.  Gegard, on the other hand, barely threw the left jab that had been so effective against Ilir Latifi.  And while he threw some good leg kicks, he didn't throw nearly enough of them.

Of the two fighters, Lyoto is the one who fought with urgency.  Though he danced around the cage as always, avoiding danger, he also blitzed with chain punch combinations, flying knees, and skull-splitting head kicks.  Gegard seemed content to throw an occasional left hook, an occasional right cross, and an occasional leg kick--even when it was obvious to everyone that he was way behind on points.

With that being said, I do have a couple positive things to say about Gegard's performance.  First, I thought his reversal from half guard in the fourth round was pretty sweet.  It gave him top position and a rare opportunity to inflict damage on the karateka.  Props to Machida, though, since he nullified Gegard's ground-n-pound which is something few other fighters have been able to do.

Prior to the fight, Gegard was considered to have a pretty solid chin.  The consensus was that he could take a punch.  After the fight, there is no doubt.  Machida hit him with the same round kick that put Mark Munoz to sleep, and Gegard didn't blink.  Later in the same round, Machida hit him again--this time with the instep of his foot instead of with the shin--and Gegard shrugged it off like it was little more than a mosquito bite.  The man may have the best chin in the business.

But his versatility and ability to adapt to his opponent, something which I had written highly of in this week's blogs, was nowhere to be seen.  Gegard did the same thing for five rounds.  Even though Machida was beating him on the feet, Gegard rarely shot in for takedowns.  And, again, I am confused on why he didn't throw his jab more often.  I can only chalk it up to Machida's elusiveness.  Perhaps Mousasi never felt like he was in range to use it.

With all that being said, congratulations to Lyoto Machida.  Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort had better start designing game plans now to face the karate master, because he is almost certainly going to receive a title shot.

As for Gegard, he'll still be a stern test for other middleweights and light heavyweights, but I hope he reviews the fight, sees that he should have fought with greater urgency, and does so in the future.  It's often been said that he looks bored in the cage.  Well, tonight he fought like it.

Until next time.

UFC Fight Night 36: Under Card

I'll be honest.  There's a lot of names on the under card that I'm not familiar with.  Guys who fight in international markets that I don't have easy access to.  For those guys, it doesn't make sense for me to make a fight prediction.  My general rule of thumb is that I have to have seen a man fight before I will make a prediction on whether or not he has what it takes to win.

So that leaves me with a predicament.  You see, of the 22 fighters on the under card, I've only seen 9 of them fight.  Less than half.  So I'll only make a handful of predictions here.  If you've been reading my blogs this week, you know that I am spitting in the eye of popular opinion by predicting that Gegard Mousasi will win a decision over Lyoto Machida.  I think Mousasi's jab, leg kicks, ability to adapt to his opponents and his ability to stay cool under fire will make the difference in a close fight.

Machida, being a fan favorite (and hometown hero), may be gifted an undeserved decision.  Stranger things have happened.  After all, Machida was given a decision win over Shogun Rua in their first fight even though it was pretty clear that Shogun deserved the win.  We shall see.

How about Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza versus Francis Carmont?  This is an interesting fight.  Carmont is HUGE for the middleweight division.  At the weigh ins yesterday, he looked much bigger than Jacare.  Plus, Georges St. Pierre--former pound for pound great and UFC welterweight champion--has dedicated every day of training camp to Carmont.  In other words, Carmont should look better than he ever has, and that's saying something because he looked pretty darned good in his last fight dominating Costas Philippou.

But he's facing a juggernaut.  Jacare is one of the greatest jiu-jitsu competitors of his generation, having won the world championships 5 times--3 at Open Weight!  So he is used to dealing with bigger guys.  Plus, he has a submission victory over Marcelo Garcia, who many consider the greatest jiu-jitsu competitor in history.  He had those skills before he made the transition to mixed martial arts.  Now he has developed a complete skill set.  His striking, for instance, is much better than it was a few years ago.  In his last fight, he blitzed Yushin Okami with punches against the cage.  Not only is he striking accurately, he is striking with a ton of power.

What a frightening proposition: one of the greatest submission fighters on the planet becomes one of the greatest strikers on the planet, too.  Think about that for a moment.  I wouldn't want to face that guy.  Now to be clear, I am not saying that Jacare is one of the greatest strikers in the sport, but I am saying that he has the potential to become one.  And if he does, I'm sure the top ten middleweights won't look forward to facing him, either.

My prediction: Jacare wins by unanimous decision.

Now let's discuss Joe Proctor versus Cristiano Marcello.  Both of these guys are alumni of The Ultimate Fighter.  Neither of them won that tournament, and both of them are coming off losses and long layoffs.  Marcelo will be fighting in front of a home-country crowd in Brazil, so he should be super hyped to perform at his best.  Proctor trains with Joe Lauzon, so he should be well prepared.  I've seen both of these guys fight several times, and Proctor has appeared the more durable, determined fighter.  Because of that, I pick him to win a decision.

My last prediction will be for the Charles Oliveira versus Andy Ogle fight.  Ogle is a hard-nosed British banger who brings a high level of intensity into the cage.  He is yet another alumni of the Ultimate Fighter.  Officially, he has fought 3 times in the UFC, but he lost 2 of those fights.  All 3 fights have gone to a decision.

Charles Oliveira caught my eye when he finished Ultimate Fighter winner Efrain Escudero back in September 2010.  Since then, he has been inconsistent, losing to Cub Swanson, Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone and Frankie Edgar, but getting some respectable wins against another Ultimate Fighter winner, Jonathan Brookins, and Eric Wisely.  Even in his losses, he has shown glimpses of the undefeated fighter who beat Escudero.  Because of that, I think he'll win.  In fact, I think he'll catch Ogle in a submission in round 3.

So that's it, folks.  Fights start in a few hours.  Be sure to tune in and enjoy!

Until next time.

The Beauty and the Heart Break

"How do you watch that stuff?" 

If you're a hardcore fan of combat sports (mixed martial arts, boxing, kick boxing, etc.), you've been asked this question before. Sometimes a friend, or maybe a fellow worker, will ask it after you've told them, "Sorry, can't go out on Saturday. I'm watching the fights." Regardless of why they ask you, the question is hard to answer. I usually mutter something about how combat sports cater to a man's primal self—which makes me look and feel like some sick masochist. And unfortunately, some combat sports—boxing, for instance—are renowned for their casualties. Fans are most often asked, "How can you watch that stuff?" right after a boxer dies from ring injuries. And though, statistically, more people are injured in football, soccer, hockey and auto-racing, that doesn't help ease the guilty feelings we find creeping into our conscience. After all, combat sports are the only major sports in which the goal is to hit another man (or woman) until he stops hitting back. In mixed martial arts you could also choke them unconscious or bend their limbs to the point of snapping. Unless they tap. It makes us wonder, why do we watch this stuff? 

But there is more to it. 

A combat sport—at its best—is two men imposing their wills on one another. It goes beyond a mere match of skill or strength. It is a contest of desire. When all else is equal, the fighter who wants it more will be the one who ultimately has his arm raised in victory. This is one reason why we get frustrated when a fighter backpedals for an entire match. If only he threw more punches! If only he tried a bit harder! If only he wanted it more. Or when we watch a lay-n-pray artist hold his opponent down for three rounds without once committing to a finish. He's obviously got some skills, we say. After all, he's taking his opponent down at will. Why doesn't he try to finish him? The answer, of course, is that he doesn't want to win as much as some other great athletes want to win. He doesn't give his all. He doesn't impose his will. 

Maybe fear has something to do with it. What happens to a man's confidence after he's been knocked out? Who knows what kind of torture he's endured in the gym? Maybe he's been hurt badly, and fears that throwing caution to the wind is too reckless. It leads to trouble. It leads to pain. Maybe that's what holds him back in the last rounds of a fight in which he is hopelessly behind on points and only a finish can salvage victory. 

He knows and we know that in no other sport can a man go from winning handily to losing utterly, lying crushed, senseless, unconscious at the feet of his opponent, with all sense of pride ripped from him. One punch, one choke is all it takes. And herein lies its beauty. One can find—even in a bout between two talentless, free swinging club fighters—a certain beauty in sacrificing caution, in giving one's all in an effort to separate a man from his senses, knowing that any error in timing can result in one's own abject humiliation, incapacitation, and yes, even death. 

You won't find that in football. Sure, a team can come back from 30 points down and miraculously win in the fourth quarter. But the team can't accomplish that in one play. Same with basketball or tennis or any other non-martial sport you can imagine. There are comebacks. Underdogs do win. But you won't ever find the equivalent of a one punch knock out win for a man who was losing every second of every round up until he landed the big one. A home run is cool. A slam-dunk is nasty. But a knock out is deadly. 

Some fans question their love for the sport after they've seen an awful decision. We've seen a couple of those in recent years. Whether or not you believed Georges St. Pierre deserved the win against Johnny Hendricks, you had to wonder why the judges felt Timothy Bradley beat Manny Pacquiao. Some of us were ready to hang up the gloves, so to speak. I'm never watching another fight, we said. It's all crooked anyway. Why bother? 

But inevitably, we are drawn like moths to a flame. And we realize that even when it breaks our hearts—when a good fighter is robbed, when a promoter screws his fighter out of hundreds of thousands of dollars, when two top guys in a division can't fight because they work for rival organizations, when a fighter dies in the ring—we will stick around for those moments that can be found no where else. We stick around, hoping to see another Ali/Frazier, a Griffin/Bonner, or a Frye/Takayama. It is in fights like these where the beauty of this sport holds us spellbound. We'll sit through a hundred Kalib Starnes/Nate Quarry fights just for the chance to see one Chuck Liddell/Wanderlei Silva. 

We may not know what to say when someone asks us, "How do you watch that stuff?" We could talk to them of why we watch, of the excitement we feel when contemplating great match-ups. We could tell them it's the possibility of seeing something great, something beautiful, and perhaps they'd understand—I've converted a few—but then again, we may only be wasting our breath. "There is nothing beautiful about two men beating each other up," they say. 

But they are wrong.

Machida VS Mousasi Part 3: Who Wins, and Why.

Now that we've looked at both fighters and some of their biggest fights, it's time to look at how they match up against one another.  As they say in combat sports, styles make fights.  It's the reason why Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier always brought out the best in one another.  Because their styles seemed engineered to give the other one problems.

Let me explain.  Muhammad Ali was the consummate boxer, the guy who could dance around the ring, always just an inch away from his opponent's punches, and pepper them with jabs.  He could also sprinkle in hooks and crosses, and dart away before they could respond in kind.

Joe Frazier was a tank with good head movement and a howitzer left hook.  He was able to wade through his opponents' jabs and make them pay with brutal body blows and fight-ending head shots.

Every time these guys fought each other, the result was sensational.  Ali did his thing.  Frazier did his thing.  And both knew they had been in a fight.

Machida and Mousasi also have unique fighting styles.  But will their styles combine to make a great fight, or a stinker?  Let's look closer.

Machida fights the way a chess master plays chess.  He seems to constantly analyze his opponents and reacts immediately to their mistakes.   He is a counterstriker at heart, looking to play defense until he spies a weakness.  But then he attacks.  And his attacks have provided mma with some of the most sensational knockouts in history.  Make no mistake, though he is a defense-minded fighter, his offense is as good as anyone's.

Mousasi is also an analyst inside the ring.  A man who relies less on instinct and more on strategy.  Like Machida, he is a thinking man's fighter.  He can mold his strategy around his opponent.  Now, that sounds like a simple thing.  But in a real fight, it seems to be one of the most difficult things for a fighter to do.  Often, strategy flies out the window the moment you're punched in the face.  Then you fall back on instinct and on what you're most comfortable doing.  Brawlers brawl.  Wrestlers wrestle.  Jiu-jitsu guys pull guard.

Mousasi doesn't.  When he fought superior strikers such as Melvin Manhoef and Mark Hunt, he took the fight to the ground almost immediately.  When he faced Ilir Latifi in his most recent fight, he knew that Latifi's best chance against him would be to throw bombs or to get on top of Mousasi and ground-n-pound him.  So Mousasi kept him on the end of his jab throughout the fight, and turned his face into hamburger.

Again, that ability is in short supply.  Fighters who can mold their strategies--and stick to them even when things get rough--have seen great success.  Georges St. Pierre, for instance, has done this for most of his career.

But can Mousasi adjust to Machida?  Jon Jones did.  After losing the first round, he changed his strategy and left Machida lying unconscious on the canvas.  Though Shogun Rua also finished him, he didn't really adapt his style to Machida's.  Rather, he imposed his own style.  Machida was the one who couldn't adapt.

This begs the question: will Mousasi need to adapt?  

It seems the answer is, whether he needs to or not, he is already adapting.  Rumors abound that Mousasi brought in a karate master (who has beaten Machida in karate) to train with to prepare for this bout.  This shows Mousasi is taking the fight seriously.  Depending on how closely this karate master's style replicates Machida's, Mousasi shouldn't be surprised by any of Machida's karate-based attacks on Saturday.

As for Machida, he will likely enter the Octagon with the same strategy he normally uses: keep it on the feet, make his opponent miss, capitalize on mistakes, and maybe sprinkle in some takedowns and submission attempts for good measure.  

If Machida focuses on takedowns, submissions, and ground-n-pound, Mousasi may be in some trouble.  May.  King Mo was able to take him down at will, but did little damage.  Other fighters, like Denis Kang and Jacare, took him down and paid for it.

Machida may be best served by simply using his karate-based attack.  Mousasi is no slouch in the striking department (he boasts an undefeated kickboxing record), but other than in training, he has never faced a guy like Machida.  Machida, on the other hand, has faced guys with good kickboxing-based stand-up.  Only Shogun Rua, who employs a more muay-thai style than Gegard, has clearly beaten Machida on the feet.

But I don't know if Machida has ever faced a jab like Gegard's.  Having a traditional martial arts background myself (though not even in the same galaxy as Machida's--who would curb stomp me in 3 seconds flat), I remember struggling to adjust against guys with a solid jab and boxing background.  In traditional martial arts, we rarely see a sharp, crisp jab popping us in the face.  We see far more backfists and sidekicks in point fighting.

But Machida has been fighting in mixed martial arts for a while now.  Though he started his martial arts career with karate, he has seen and faced a wide variety of styles.  He shouldn't be too surprised by anything Mousasi throws at him.  Again, the exception may be Gegard's jab, which may be the best at 185 pounds.

Something else that may factor into the fight is Gegard's reach.  He has a 76 inch reach, one of the longest Machida has faced.  Jon Jones, of course, had a much longer reach.  Now, some fighters are tall but they fight small.  They prefer to fight on the inside of their opponent even though they could hit them from a distance.  Gegard is not one of those guys.  He sometimes stays right at the distance that works best for him.  Against the shorter Latifi, he kept him at the end of his jab and rarely allowed him to close distance without either popping him with a jab or a cross, or moving out of range.  It was high-level stuff.

Machida, too, makes a practice of fighting at a distance that works for him.  He is notoriously hard to hit.  And he covers distance, perhaps, better than anyone at 185 pounds.  When he sees an opening, he blasts forward to engage, whether he's 3 feet or 9 feet away.  It doesn't matter.

This style often rattles and frustrates Machida's opponents.  Rashad Evans, for instance, seemed to get frustrated.  Then he started making mistakes.  He dropped his hands, started talking smack, and left himself open for Machida's cobra-like strikes.

Mousasi, on the other hand, never seems to get rattled.  Latifi started to jaw at him in Sweden, which made the pro-Latifi crowd roar their approval, but Gegard stared straight through the theatrics and simply kept pounding the late replacement with jabs.  Talk all the smack you want, Gegard doesn't care.  It bores him.  

Much has been made about that bored demeanor.  At times, he looks almost disinterested in the fight, like he's waiting in line at the DMV.  But that disinterest is seen on his face only.  His hands and feet tell a different story.  While his face says, "I couldn't care less," his hands say, "I care, and I'm going to show you how much I care by punching a hole through your face."  We can all rest assured that Mousasi will care on Saturday night.  This fight is the most important of his career.  A win catapults him to the top of the line at 185.  A loss, especially a bad one, will make even more fans wonder what all the hoopla was about.

So who will win?

The smart money is on Machida.  He has faced the better competition.  He has fought in the UFC for years.  He has been a UFC champion.  He has been the consensus number 1 guy in the world.  Mousasi hasn't.  Plus, Mousasi is coming off an injury and the longest layoff of his career.

But I think Mousasi is going to win.

It's a gut feeling more than anything else.  If I had to point to something that will make the difference, it would be to Mousasi's ability to adapt and to change strategy.  I would also point to his reach and his amazing jab.  I believe that jab is going to cause problems for Machida.  Additionally, Gegard has good leg kicks.  If he can use them the way Rua did against Machida, then he could eke out a decision victory.

And I do think this one goes to a decision.  Unless Machida gets reckless and gets caught by a submission, I think he'll survive to the end.  And Mousasi has shown an iron chin, so I don't think Machida knocks him out, either.

Either way, it is an interesting fight.  It may not turn into an exciting fight, since analytical fighters sometimes cancel out one another's offense, but it should be fun to watch from a strategical perspective.

Who knows, maybe they will surprise us.

Until then, keep your hands up and come out fighting.


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