Now that we've looked at both fighters and some of their biggest fights, it's time to look at how they match up against one another. As they say in combat sports, styles make fights. It's the reason why Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier always brought out the best in one another. Because their styles seemed engineered to give the other one problems.
Let me explain. Muhammad Ali was the consummate boxer, the guy who could dance around the ring, always just an inch away from his opponent's punches, and pepper them with jabs. He could also sprinkle in hooks and crosses, and dart away before they could respond in kind.
Joe Frazier was a tank with good head movement and a howitzer left hook. He was able to wade through his opponents' jabs and make them pay with brutal body blows and fight-ending head shots.
Every time these guys fought each other, the result was sensational. Ali did his thing. Frazier did his thing. And both knew they had been in a fight.
Machida and Mousasi also have unique fighting styles. But will their styles combine to make a great fight, or a stinker? Let's look closer.
Machida fights the way a chess master plays chess. He seems to constantly analyze his opponents and reacts immediately to their mistakes. He is a counterstriker at heart, looking to play defense until he spies a weakness. But then he attacks. And his attacks have provided mma with some of the most sensational knockouts in history. Make no mistake, though he is a defense-minded fighter, his offense is as good as anyone's.
Mousasi is also an analyst inside the ring. A man who relies less on instinct and more on strategy. Like Machida, he is a thinking man's fighter. He can mold his strategy around his opponent. Now, that sounds like a simple thing. But in a real fight, it seems to be one of the most difficult things for a fighter to do. Often, strategy flies out the window the moment you're punched in the face. Then you fall back on instinct and on what you're most comfortable doing. Brawlers brawl. Wrestlers wrestle. Jiu-jitsu guys pull guard.
Mousasi doesn't. When he fought superior strikers such as Melvin Manhoef and Mark Hunt, he took the fight to the ground almost immediately. When he faced Ilir Latifi in his most recent fight, he knew that Latifi's best chance against him would be to throw bombs or to get on top of Mousasi and ground-n-pound him. So Mousasi kept him on the end of his jab throughout the fight, and turned his face into hamburger.
Again, that ability is in short supply. Fighters who can mold their strategies--and stick to them even when things get rough--have seen great success. Georges St. Pierre, for instance, has done this for most of his career.
But can Mousasi adjust to Machida? Jon Jones did. After losing the first round, he changed his strategy and left Machida lying unconscious on the canvas. Though Shogun Rua also finished him, he didn't really adapt his style to Machida's. Rather, he imposed his own style. Machida was the one who couldn't adapt.
This begs the question: will Mousasi need to adapt?
It seems the answer is, whether he needs to or not, he is already adapting. Rumors abound that Mousasi brought in a karate master (who has beaten Machida in karate) to train with to prepare for this bout. This shows Mousasi is taking the fight seriously. Depending on how closely this karate master's style replicates Machida's, Mousasi shouldn't be surprised by any of Machida's karate-based attacks on Saturday.
As for Machida, he will likely enter the Octagon with the same strategy he normally uses: keep it on the feet, make his opponent miss, capitalize on mistakes, and maybe sprinkle in some takedowns and submission attempts for good measure.
If Machida focuses on takedowns, submissions, and ground-n-pound, Mousasi may be in some trouble. May. King Mo was able to take him down at will, but did little damage. Other fighters, like Denis Kang and Jacare, took him down and paid for it.
Machida may be best served by simply using his karate-based attack. Mousasi is no slouch in the striking department (he boasts an undefeated kickboxing record), but other than in training, he has never faced a guy like Machida. Machida, on the other hand, has faced guys with good kickboxing-based stand-up. Only Shogun Rua, who employs a more muay-thai style than Gegard, has clearly beaten Machida on the feet.
But I don't know if Machida has ever faced a jab like Gegard's. Having a traditional martial arts background myself (though not even in the same galaxy as Machida's--who would curb stomp me in 3 seconds flat), I remember struggling to adjust against guys with a solid jab and boxing background. In traditional martial arts, we rarely see a sharp, crisp jab popping us in the face. We see far more backfists and sidekicks in point fighting.
But Machida has been fighting in mixed martial arts for a while now. Though he started his martial arts career with karate, he has seen and faced a wide variety of styles. He shouldn't be too surprised by anything Mousasi throws at him. Again, the exception may be Gegard's jab, which may be the best at 185 pounds.
Something else that may factor into the fight is Gegard's reach. He has a 76 inch reach, one of the longest Machida has faced. Jon Jones, of course, had a much longer reach. Now, some fighters are tall but they fight small. They prefer to fight on the inside of their opponent even though they could hit them from a distance. Gegard is not one of those guys. He sometimes stays right at the distance that works best for him. Against the shorter Latifi, he kept him at the end of his jab and rarely allowed him to close distance without either popping him with a jab or a cross, or moving out of range. It was high-level stuff.
Machida, too, makes a practice of fighting at a distance that works for him. He is notoriously hard to hit. And he covers distance, perhaps, better than anyone at 185 pounds. When he sees an opening, he blasts forward to engage, whether he's 3 feet or 9 feet away. It doesn't matter.
This style often rattles and frustrates Machida's opponents. Rashad Evans, for instance, seemed to get frustrated. Then he started making mistakes. He dropped his hands, started talking smack, and left himself open for Machida's cobra-like strikes.
Mousasi, on the other hand, never seems to get rattled. Latifi started to jaw at him in Sweden, which made the pro-Latifi crowd roar their approval, but Gegard stared straight through the theatrics and simply kept pounding the late replacement with jabs. Talk all the smack you want, Gegard doesn't care. It bores him.
Much has been made about that bored demeanor. At times, he looks almost disinterested in the fight, like he's waiting in line at the DMV. But that disinterest is seen on his face only. His hands and feet tell a different story. While his face says, "I couldn't care less," his hands say, "I care, and I'm going to show you how much I care by punching a hole through your face." We can all rest assured that Mousasi will care on Saturday night. This fight is the most important of his career. A win catapults him to the top of the line at 185. A loss, especially a bad one, will make even more fans wonder what all the hoopla was about.
So who will win?
The smart money is on Machida. He has faced the better competition. He has fought in the UFC for years. He has been a UFC champion. He has been the consensus number 1 guy in the world. Mousasi hasn't. Plus, Mousasi is coming off an injury and the longest layoff of his career.
But I think Mousasi is going to win.
It's a gut feeling more than anything else. If I had to point to something that will make the difference, it would be to Mousasi's ability to adapt and to change strategy. I would also point to his reach and his amazing jab. I believe that jab is going to cause problems for Machida. Additionally, Gegard has good leg kicks. If he can use them the way Rua did against Machida, then he could eke out a decision victory.
And I do think this one goes to a decision. Unless Machida gets reckless and gets caught by a submission, I think he'll survive to the end. And Mousasi has shown an iron chin, so I don't think Machida knocks him out, either.
Either way, it is an interesting fight. It may not turn into an exciting fight, since analytical fighters sometimes cancel out one another's offense, but it should be fun to watch from a strategical perspective.
Who knows, maybe they will surprise us.
Until then, keep your hands up and come out fighting.
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