Welcome back, readers. All three of you. Tomorrow night is the big live finale where the 17th season of The Ultimate Fighter will be wrapped up. I, for one, cannot wait. If you watched the show, then you are going to want to watch this finale. Most of the guys from the house will be fighting this weekend. Two of them--Adam Cella and Tor Treung--fought last weekend, with Tor wining by rear naked choke in the 2nd round. Poor Adam walked into the house as an undefeated fighter but has now been finished in his last two outings. For Tor's part, he managed to polish some of the tarnish off his reputation after getting pole-axed by Josh Samman on the show.
Anyway, let's break down all 12 fights on the card:
Prelims (To air on Facebook at 5:30 pm ET/2:30 pm PT)
Justin Lawrence vs Daniel Pineda
I'll be honest and admit that I don't remember ever watching Daniel Pineda fight. Looking at his record, I see that he has 17 wins and 9 losses. Plus, all 17 wins were finishes (11 submissions and 6 KO's/TKO's). He has lost his last two fights and therefore will be facing the very real prospect of getting shipped back to the minor leagues if he loses this one since the UFC rarely keeps guys who have lost three straight.
Justin Lawrence, however, is still fresh in my memory. He was a stand out on season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter, having displayed high-level striking skills. He lost in the quarter finals to eventual winner, Michael Chiesa. Nothing to be ashamed of there, Chiesa is still undefeated and has shown nasty submission skills. After the show, Justin got back on the winning track with a head kick knockout of fellow cast member, John Cofer, before losing in his last fight against the surging Max Holloway. At the weigh-ins on Friday, Justin looked to be in the best shape I've ever seen him in. In the past he has been soft around the belly. Not so on Friday.
Since both guy are coming off losses, I think they will be fighting with a measure of desperation. Let's make no bones about it--if they want to continue fighting in mixed martial arts, they want to fight for the UFC. No other organization offers the money or prestige that the UFC offers. Consequently, I think this will be a good fight. Justin will likely try to keep it standing and since 11 of Daniel's 17 wins have come by submission, I figure he will try to put Justin on the canvas as quickly as possible.
My Pick: Justin Lawrence by Second Round TKO.
Sam Sicilia vs Maximo Blanco
If you're unfamiliar with mixed martial arts outside of the UFC you may have never heard of Maximo Blanco. Let me help introduce you to this monster. Check out this You Tube highlight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiOCwWJQJy4
I'm serious. Go watch this right now.
Done? Okay, now you know what he is capable of against international competition. With that being said, he is on a two-fight losing streak and his last fight was almost a year ago. He is bound to have ring rust. That's not a good thing when you're facing a heavy handed puncher like Sam Sicilia. Like Justin Lawrence, Sam Sicilia is an alumi of season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter. Also like Justin, he scored a vicious knockout in his first post-TUF fight only to then lose his next match by knockout.
Regardless, these guys like to brawl, so I imagine this could turn into a barn burner. If you don't yet have a Facebook account, it is worth getting one just to watch this fight.
My Pick: Maximo Blanco by Third Round KO.
Cole Miller vs Bart Palaszewski
This one should be good. Bart Palaszewski is a grizzled pro. He used to be a member of the Quad City Silverbacks, one of the teams in the defunct IFL (International Fight League). He then moved on to the WEC (World Extreme Cagefighting). When the WEC was purchased by purchased by UFC parent company, Zuffa, and later dissolved, his contract was picked up by the UFC. Since making it to the big leagues, Bart has gone 1-2, losing his last two fights by decision (though one of those earned him Fight of the Night honors). Having fought 52 times already, Bart has seen just about everything this sport has to offer. He is also one of the few guys to boast a victory over Anthony "Showtime" Pettis.
Cole Miller is a veteran of season 5 of The Ultimate Fighter. Since then, he has fought 12 times in the UFC and always seems to put on a good show, win or lose. He was the guy who ruined the infamous Junie Browning's UFC debut by choking him out in the first round. Unfortunately, for the first time in his career, Cole is coming off back-to-back losses. Another loss could mean a UFC pink slip. This is unfortunate because I really like the guy. He came across as a nice guy on the show and always fights with heart and determination.
And so does Bart.
My Pick: Bart Palaszewski by Unanimous Decision
Prelims (to air on Fuel TV at 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT)
I am heart broken to admit that I do not get Fuel TV and I will not be getting it in time to watch these fights. Too bad, because many of the season 17 alumni will be beating the crap out of each other and I will be missing it!
Clint Hester vs Bristol Marunde
Clint Hester is an impressive specimen. First of all, he looks like he was genetically engineered to destroy things. Really. The guy showed a ton of athleticism while in the house and is one of the only cast members who I think could hold his own against Uriah Hall in a pure striking affair. If you don't believe me, check out this clip of his Muay Thai match from August of 2010:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7Sx4la4ePg
How was that for striking?
However, his ground skills betrayed him on the show. He was out wrestled and eventually submitted in his first fight after making it into the house. Even in his loss, though, he showed potential. He was landing punches from off his back that sounded thunderous. This guy has loads of potential. I just hope he has been working his ground skills like a mad man since leaving the show.
Bristol Marunde is a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter (Team Carwin vs Team Nelson). While he did beat Julian Lane, infamous for his drunken "Just let me bang, bro!" outbursts, he lost in the quarter finals to long-armed Neal Magney (who was later knocked cold by Mike Ricci...). Bristol took a leadership role while in the house, but I wasn't really impressed with his overall fighting skills. In his lone appearance since the show, he was submitted by ground wizard Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza in Strike Force.
My Pick: Clint Hester by Unanimous Decision
Dylan Andrews vs Jimmy Quinlan
It is a crime that Dylan Andrews is not fighting on the main card in place of Bubba McDaniel and Gilbert Smith. Dylan looked great against everyone except Uriah Hall. In that fight, he seemed paralyzed, unable to let his hands go--almost like he was hypnotized by Uriah's majestic striking skills. None-the-less, he earned a main card spot for his gut check win over Luke "Big Slow" Barnatt. That fight was awesome.
Jimmy Quinlan is a great wrestler. There's little doubt he will try to put the New Zealander on his back early and often. However, he admittedly quit against Josh Samman as soon as Josh started landing those absurd double punches. That makes me question his resolve in the face of adversity. Dylan should be able to provide some adversity. My gut, however, tells me that Jimmy will score takedowns and control with ground-n-pound.
My Pick: Jimmy Quinlan by Unanimous Decision
Luke Barnatt vs Collin Hart
Luke looked good in his first two fights on the show. In fact, he looked good enough to be the #1 pick overall. He didn't look bad in his fight against Dylan Andrews, but he did show that he needed to work on his take down defense and that he needed to keep his hands up when guys are throwing haymakers at him! For the past 8 weeks or so, he has been training with Chael Sonnen, helping him prepare for his fight with Jon Jones. I can't think of a better guy to work with on take down defense and wrestling in general.
Collin Hart is a strong wrestler. Of course, he is no Chael Sonnen, but he's good. If Collin decides to make this a wrestling match, he could win a decision (or even sink a submission), but I have a feeling he will be tempted to stand and trade, just like he did against Kelvin Gastelum. Unlike some fighters whose base martial art is wrestling, Collin does not seem content to lay-n-pray his way to a decision. That cost him against Kelvin and might cost him against Luke.
My Pick: Luke Barnatt by Unanimous Decision
Josh Samman vs Kevin "King" Casey
I'm going to make this one short and not so sweet. Josh Samman showed skills and knockout power while he was in the house. More importantly, he displayed an insane amount of self confidence. You could tell he truly believed that he was destined to win the whole thing. Kevin Casey was a polar opposite. In both of the fights he lost, he seemed to give up (he literally gave up against Bubba McDaniel), he lacked enough self confidence to push through the pain.
For that reason alone:
My Pick: Josh Samman by 3rd Round TKO.
Main Card (to air on FX at 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT)
Robert "Bubba" McDaniel vs Gilbert Smith
Bubba McDaniel is getting a lot of deserved heat from mma fans; mostly because of his perceived arrogance, his less than stellar performances on the show and his getting the wild card shot over Clint Hester (who seemed more deserving). But let's add a little perspective, the only two guys to beat him on the show are the two guys who are fighting in the finale. Plus, let's not forget that Bubba is one of Jon Jones's primary sparring partners. That means he gives Jon good work a lot of the time. Jon Jones, of course, seems to fight on an otherworldly level. If Bubba can hang with that, he is probably better than what he showed on TUF. With that being said, in his win over Kevin Casey, he initially looked out of his depth. Casey put him on his back and then ran a jiu-jitsu clinic on him. In the second round, however, Kevin seemed to gas and Bubba controlled the round.
I still don't know how good or bad Gilbert Smith is. I know he likes to walk around without a shirt. He also likes to rip his shirt off Incredible Hulk style, and to his credit he is built like the Hulk. Of course, Luke Barnatt turned him into Bruce Banner when he knocked him out with that perfectly timed flying knee strike. I think most guys would have been knocked out by that knee, so I'm not yet ready to say he has a suspect chin. Other than that, I know the rest of his team didn't think he was "ready" to fight. That tells me the other guys were probably tooling him in practice.
My Pick: Robert "Bubba" McDaniel by Unanimous Decision
Travis Browne vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Gabriel Gonzaga will always be remembered as the guy that beat Mirko Cro Cop at his own game. When he landed that high kick on Mirko's dome, the world gasped in unison. It was his finest hour. Since then, he has gone 6-5 with a couple two-fight losing streaks. The good news is he is now on a three-fight winning streak. His last fight was especially impressive since he submitted the always tough Ben Rothwell.
Travis Browne was a fast rising up and comer until he was matched against Antonio "Big Foot" Silva. Silva stretched him. But Silva has stretched a lot of guys--guys with names like Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem. It's too soon to tell if Browne is still a future contender, but fighting Gonzaga should tell us plenty.
Both of these guys are huge. Browne is listed at 6'7" and 239 pounds while Gonzaga is listed at 6'2" and 261 pounds. Browne should have a significant reach advantage, but I believe Gonzaga has more one-shot knockout power. If it comes down to a jiu-jitsu battle, Gonzaga probably has the edge there, but Browne likely has an advantage in sheer athleticism.
To me, I think this comes down to Gonzaga's track record. Every time he seems ready to make a significant impact on the heavyweight division, he loses--sometimes consecutively. It is almost like he is cursed. My feeling is that the curse strikes again.
My Pick: Travis Browne by 3rd Round TKO
Miesha Tate vs Cat Zingano
Here is another moment when I have to admit that I have never seen one of the participants in action. That would be Cat Zingano. I am even more ashamed to say that I don't recognize any of the names on her record, which is a sterling one at 7-0. I have seen Miesha Tate fight three times. She looked good in all three fights, even the one where she was arm barred by UFC champion, Ronda Rousey.
For the record, I am happy to see women fight in the UFC and hope to see more of it. Of special note, whoever wins this match will get to coach the next season of The Ultimate Fighter against Ronda Rousey and will get a title shot as well.
Since I have never seen Cat fight and since I have no idea of how good her opposition was, I am not going to make a pick. However, I will predict this will be a good fight. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen a boring women's fight.
Uriah Hall vs Kelvin Gastelum
I'm going to say what everyone else is saying: Uriah Hall looks like a beast. I expect him to defeat Kelvin Gastelum. Now with that said, Kelvin has the tools to beat him. Kelvin was the underdog in each of his fights. Since he is just 21 years old, no one expected him to be as tough and skilled as he was. No one expected him to walk into each fight showing no sign of jitters, no sign of fatigue and no sign of giving up. The man handled Bubba McDaniel easily. He then knocked out Collin Hart with a short, perfectly executed left hook. If that wasn't enough, he finished the semifinals by dominating early favorite Josh Samman and submitting him with a rear naked choke.
While Uriah definitely showed superior striking skills, Kelvin displayed a greater overall skill set. He looked dangerous everywhere it went. Wrestling, striking, jiu-jitsu--he had it all. And a seemingly unwavering confidence. Bottom line is the kid has never lost a fight.
For his part, Uriah seemed like a head case. He lashed out at cast members, lost his temper while sparring, talked too often about being bullied as a child, and seemed to lack confidence in his abilities. He was also polite, compassionate and self aware. Truly, Uriah Hall is a fascinating character study. Plus, he knocks people out with an artistry that Picasso would envy.
I love this fight. It should tell us a ton about each of these warriors. While Uriah has the hype train behind him and the greater commercial upside, Kelvin looks to have all the makings of an outstanding professional fighter.
My Pick: Uriah Hall by TKO (Referee Stoppage--Kelvin Won't Tap)
Urijah Faber vs Scott Jorgensen
What is left to be said about Urijah Faber that hasn't already been said? He is the former poster boy of the WEC, the guy who single handedly brought a spot light to fighters weighing less than 155 pounds. His chin dimple is nearly as famous as Kirk Douglas's (okay, I admit that's a stretch). Some people say he is overrated, that he keeps getting title shots because of his immense popularity and not because of his fighting ability. Others say he has earned every shot. I fall somewhere in between. He is undoubtedly a gifted fighter. Has has also undoubtedly benefited from his star power. Regardless, he always puts on a good show and for that reason I am a fan.
Scott Jorgensen is Urijah's friend. They have known each other and trained with each other for years. Now they're putting that friendship aside to beat the crap out of each other for our entertainment. God bless'em both. Scott is a darn good fighter, with a great all-around skill set. However, I think Urijah has more explosiveness, athleticism and experience and that will spell the difference.
This fight will eventually hit the ground. When it does, the two of them will scramble like Tasmanian Devils. My gut tells me that Urijah will lock up a choke during one of those scrambles.
My Pick: Urijah Faber by 1st Round Submission
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