What's Next for Chris Weidman?

What’s Next for Chris Weidman?

What’s next for Chris Weidman?  His first defense of the title ended in bizarre fashion, with Anderson Silva screaming in pain after a checked kick left his leg broken in half.  While he would have been happier with a more traditional knockout or submission finish, Weidman  earned a victory all the same and now looks forward to a murderer’s row of contenders all too eager to share the cage with him.

First up is Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort.  As a long time fan of the sport, seeing Belfort roll off three straight sensational knockouts over top competition in 2013 was mind boggling.  After all, he first stepped into the octagon in 1997.  By the time he faces Chris Weidman for the Middleweight title, 17 years will have passed since he won UFC 12.  17 years.  The idea that he may be a better fighter now, at the age of 36 than he was as an explosive 19-year-old is difficult to fathom.  But as crazy as it sounds, it may be true.  Vitor Belfort may be the best he’s ever been.

And he’ll need to be if he wishes to defeat Weidman.  Over the years, Vitor has had problems with strong wrestlers.  His fights with Randy Couture and Tito Ortiz come to mind.  Weidman has great wrestling credentials, plus he’s a dedicated jiu-jitsu practitioner under the tutelage of former welterweight champion, Matt Serra.  Oh, and he’s also knocked out the greatest 185 pound fighter in history, so his striking ain’t too shabby, either.

Here’s how I believe this fight will play out.  Chris will use a similar strategy to the one he utilized against Anderson Silva.  He will move straight ahead, looking to throw hard--possibly fight-ending--strikes, and looking to shoot for takedowns often and early.  While Vitor does have submissions off his back (see the Jon Jones fight, for instance, where Vitor almost won the title with an arm bar), he’s less comfortable in that position than in any other.  Chris, on the other hand, loves to apply grueling ground and pound from the top.  Weidman also looks for submissions from the top position.

Unless Vitor lands one of his highlight reel knockout shots early, I expect Chris to drag him to the canvas and systematically break him down.  Though it would be a great story if Vitor won the middleweight title after all these years, I don’t expect it to happen.  Chris is too young, too strong, too durable, and too well-rounded for “The Phenom.”  I think Chris Weidman will retain his title via TKO in the third round.

So assuming I’m right (and Lord knows I could be wrong), who might be next to challenge for Weidman’s title?  A quick look at the UFC rankings tells the story.  Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Gegard Mousasi, Michael “The Count” Bisping, Luke Rockhold, Tim Kennedy, Francis “Limitless” Carmont, Costas Phillipou, Dan Henderson, Mark Munoz, Tim Boetsch, Rashad Evans (who has hinted about a drop to middleweight after his fight with Daniel Cormier) and even Ultimate Fighter standout Uriah Hall (who lost to Weidman back in the day, prior to either of them making it to the big leagues of the UFC) all eagerly await their turns.

And, of course, there’s Anderson Silva.  The surgeon who put his leg back together again says Anderson can begin training again in as little as 6 months.  I’m no doctor, but that sounds a little too good to be true.  Anderson’s shin swung like a pair of nunchakus when it snapped in half, with his tibia forming the sticks and his skin serving as the chain that kept them together.  There’s no quick way to recover from that horrific of an injury.  Anderson will likely be out for more than a year.  By the time he comes back to the Octagon, he will be another year older (almost 40), and Chris Weidman will have likely gotten even better.  Though no one likes the idea of Anderson going out like that, with his leg shattered and his screams echoing in our memories, I hope he retires.  If not, I pray that he takes a tune-up fight before locking horns with someone of Weidman’s caliber again.  After the long layoff, Anderson will have to chip away the ring rust before he’ll be close to 100%, and that’s assuming he can ever regain the level of performance he enjoyed prior to the injury.  Some injuries are so severe, fighters never fully recover.  This could be the case with Anderson.

But while Anderson is on the shelf, healing, the most likely challenger is either “Jacare” (pronounced jock-uh-ray) Souza or the winner of the upcoming Lyoto Machida/Gegard Mousasi fight.  Jacare is one of the greatest jiu-jitsu fighters in the sport.  His accomplishments in submission grappling include winning the open weight world championships 3 times and the Abu Dhabi Combat Championships twice.  That’s just the highlights.  His titles are far too numerous to list here.  Suffice it to say, Jacare is a beast on the ground.  He is a threat to submit anyone. 

On his feet, Jacare is also formidable.  In his last fight he knocked out Yushin Okami with brutal punches.  Okami is normally difficult to finish.  Tim Boetsch did it and Anderson Silva was able to do it, but prior to those losses, he hadn’t been stopped since 2003.  The point is that Jacare can put opponents to sleep in a number of ways.  Of the group of monsters salivating to take on Chris, I believe Jacare may be the worst matchup stylistically for him.  Worst for Chris, that is.  Jacare’s stand up is solid, though not likely as solid as Chris’s.  After all, Chris knocked out one of the greatest mixed martial arts strikers of all time in Anderson Silva.  He also dropped Mark Munoz with a perfectly timed elbow strike and starched Uriah Hall with a left hook.  On the feet, Chris has an advantage.

On the ground, which is where it is likely to go seeing as how both of these guys began their martial arts training with ground fighting (Jacare with jiu-jitsu; Chris with wrestling) I see Chris having to defend constant submission attempts.  Chances are, Chris’s superior wrestling will allow him to work from top position.  From there, he’ll need to land hard punches and elbows often if he is to slow down Jacare’s submissions.  For his part, Jacare had best not sleep on Chris’s own submission acumen.  Matt Serra has claimed for years that Chris has world class jiu-jitsu.  Back in 2009, Chris entered the Abu Dhabi Submission Wrestling World Championships after only one year of jiu-jitsu training and made it to the quarter finals before losing to world class competitor, Andre Galvao.  His performance prompted noted MMA journalist Jordan Breen to say, “For such a novice fighter to be so aggressive and technical in a pure grappling competition against one of the world's best speaks volumes to what a great MMA middleweight Chris Weidman may become."

While I don’t expect Chris to submit Jacare (not unless he hurts him with strikes first and then slaps a choke on his dazed opponent), I wouldn’t be surprised if his own submission abilities allow him to avoid getting caught with one.  Randy Couture, who is a great wrestler but isn’t known for his submission abilities was able to fight Jacare to a draw in a pure submission wrestling match several years back.  In some ways, Chris reminds me of a younger version of Couture, but with a greater dedication to submissions and heavier hands.  Ultimately, I think his edge in striking and top control will be enough to earn him a decision win over Jacare.  With that being said, Chris will need to be at the top of his game to pull it off.

Lyoto Machida, who will be fighting Gegard Mousasi next, poses a complex problem to solve.  His karate-based fighting style has been too much for most of his opponents to handle.  He even won a round from Light Heavyweight champion, Jon Jones, before the champion solved the puzzle and choked him unconscious.   Machida has knockout power with both his hands and feet.  In my opinion, Only Mauricio “Shogun” Rua has truly out struck Machida.  Rua employs an almost reckless Muay Thai style made famous at the world renowned Chute Box Academy. Chris’s striking style is more analytical than Rua’s.  Both tend to move forward and press the action, but Chris seems to measure his opponent more.  He seems to focus more on gauging rhythm and distance to fire off perfectly timed counter strikes like the elbow he landed against Mark Munoz or the leg check that broke Anderson Silva’s leg.  Rua seems more focused on his own offense.  

Against a stylist like Machida, who is the ultimate analyzer and counter striker, Chris May wish to follow Rua's lead and be more offense-minded.  He might wish to look to make his own openings rather than wait for them.  Strike first instead of counter strike.  With that being said, he will need to be cautious when employing this game plan.  Others, like Ryan Bader, for instance, tried coming straight forward and bullying Machida only to run into one of Machida’s lethal counters.

I can envision this fight playing out a number of ways, and in both combatants’ favor.  Let’s take Machida, for instance.  I can see him using his cat and mouse approach to befuddle Weidman.  He could stay on the outside, away from Chris’s punches, only to dart in suddenly to land a straight punch or body kick, and then scoot out of harm’s way before Chris can retaliate.  He may be able to keep this up for five rounds.  He may even short-circuit Chris with one of those bursts before the five rounds are up.  Though Machida has good submission skills, I don’t see him catching Weidman with one.  Unless, again, he hurts him first with a strike and pounces before Chris can shake away the cobwebs.

Now let’s discuss how Chris can win.  First, we have to acknowledge that Chris could knock out Machida.  Chris has legitimate one-punch knockout power, as evidenced by the first Silva encounter.  And if he hurts his opponent but doesn’t put him to sleep with the first shot, he is a fantastic finisher, as he displayed in his fights against Mark Munoz and Uriah Hall.  Like Anderson, Machida could get too confident in his own striking, especially if he has success early on.  This could encourage him to take unnecessary risks and leave him vulnerable to a Weidman counter strike.  Machida has been knocked out before, so his chin isn’t full proof, and it may only take one shot from Weidman to end the night.  Machida will need to be hyper-focused throughout their match if he is to walk away with a win.

Chris might also be able to drag Machida to the canvas and work him over with ground and pound.  Not many have been able to do that, but Chris was able to take down Mark Munoz, who has elite level wrestling, so doing the same to Machida isn’t out of the question.  If that happens, Machida would be in unfamiliar territory.  It would be interesting to see how he responds to stifling top control and viscous elbows thrown at him from inside his guard.  Ultimately, I think Chris would get the win, but like the match against Jacare, Chris would need to bring his A-game to do it.  A less than fully focused effort could lead to a humbling experience for the champion.

Gegard Mousasi.  I think a lot of fans are sleeping on Gegard (Pronounced gay-guard.  No, I’m not joking.).  His first foray into the octagon wasn’t impressive.  He earned a decision against unheralded Llir Latifi, who was a last-second replacement for Alexander Gustaffson (who would later give light heavyweight champion Jon Jones all he could handle).  Though he won a unanimous decision, many were disappointed that Mousasi couldn't finish the late replacement.  However, reports state that Mousasi fought that match with an injured knee and actually had surgery on that knee after the fight.  Outside of the octagon, Gegard has been a monster, racking up victories over a who’s who of international competition.  For instance, he has wins over: Jacare (remember him? Gegard knocked him out with an up kick from his back.), Melvin Manhoef (a wickedly good standup fighter), Mark Hunt (K1 champion and current UFC heavyweight contender), Rameau Sokoudjou (who was at one time a super-hyped contender), Renato Sobral, Gary Goodridge, Denis Kang, and many others.  At his best, Gegard is a tough match for anyone--even heavyweights.  At 185 pounds, he could be an absolute leviathan.  

He is the most well-rounded of the contenders mentioned so far, being equally adept at striking and submissions.  His only weakness that I've seen is his takedown defense.  When he lost the Strike Force championship to Muhammad Lawal, he seemed unable to stop any of Lawal’s shots.  It should be stated, however, that Lawal is a world class wrestler, and when they fought, Lawal was still a wrestling-based fighter and not the boxer-first-wrestler-second fighter that he has become today.  Lawal wanted nothing to do with Gegard on his feet.  He shot for takedowns every time the two stood up.  And to Gegard’s credit, Lawal was unable to hurt him at any time during the fight.  But It should also be said that Gegard was unable to submit the wrestler or do any real damage from the bottom.  Their fight was an obvious, if somewhat boring, decision win for Lawal.

With that fight in mind, it may be wise for Chris to use a wrestling-first strategy against Gegard.  Chris’s takedowns are high level--maybe not as high level as Lawal’s, but probably not far off.  If he could take Gegard down, his ground and pound coupled with his expert knowledge of the submission game could give him the victory.  Since I’ve never seen Gegard hurt or dazed, I don’t think Chris is likely to knock him out.  But he could grind out a decision or possibly catch him in a submission, though the submission isn’t as likely.  Jacare couldn’t submit Gegard, so I don’t like Chris’s chances.

As for their striking, I think Gegard matches up favorably with Chris.  His strikes are fluid and natural and speak to countless hours of training in the gym.  He has defeated 18 of his opponents by TKO (technical knockout), or 53% of his wins.  Plus, he has won most of his fights against striking-based opponents like Mark Hunt and Gary Goodridge.  But it is hard to discount Chris’s own striking ability.  Though, to me, his strikes don’t appear as natural or as crisp as Gegard’s, he has out struck several opponents who, on paper, were considered superior strikers, like Anderson Silva and Uriah Hall.  So the bottom line is that he gets the job done against strikers. 

The wrestling edge goes to Chris, whose collegiate wrestling credentials are exemplary.  The submission acumen of both fighters is high level.  Gegard has submitted 11 of his opponents--that’s 32% of his wins.  Weidman, on the other hand, has submitted 3 of his opponents.  Since he has only fought 11 professional fights, that equals an impressive 27% of his opponents.  However, when he entered the East Coast Grappling Quest tournament, he mowed through 13 opponents and finished every one of them with submissions, so the man knows his way around a jiu-jitsu match.

Still, Weidman has only fought in 11 MMA matches.  This brings me to my next point.  Experience.  Gegard has far more professional experience than Chris.  In fact, he has been fighting as a professional for over 10 years.  That’s 6 more years than Chris has been fighting.  In that time, Gegard has fought 37 times, making him one of the most experienced competitors Chris has ever faced.  And he has competed in some of the biggest organizations in the world, such as Pride, Strike Force, Dream, K1, and, of course, the UFC.  He has fought for world titles before, so chances are Gegard will not be overwhelmed by the moment when he steps into the Octagon to face Chris Weidman for all the proverbial marbles. 

With that being said, the UFC is, currently, the biggest stage in mixed martial arts.  It doesn’t come any bigger, any more intense, or with any more pressure than what Gegard would face against Chris Weidman for the 185 pound world championship.  And Weidman has already been through that.  Twice.  And came out victorious both times.

The other fighters I mentioned earlier are still several wins away from challenging for the world title (barring the need for a last minute replacement), but know that all of them pose serious challenges to Chris Weidman.  The 185 pound division is stacked.  The top 15-20 are all beasts who could conceivably win a world title in the future.  But Chris Weidman may very well be the biggest beast of all for a long time.  For now, there is no doubt that he is king of the mountain.  He has the tools and the will to defeat the many challengers to his crown, but in mixed martial arts nothing is ever certain.  Except for this:

I am looking forward to watching how this all plays out.  Hopefully, you are, too.