UFC 169

UFC 169 Preview and Fight Picks

Ladies and gentlemen, UFC 169 is almost upon us and I, for one, am excited.  And that surprises me, because I don't normally get excited when the little guys fight.  Of course, when I say little guys I mean 145 pounds and lighter.  Now before you crucify me for being honest, let me elaborate.  While those lighter weight fighters display a ton of technique, cardio that lasts for hours, and surprising knockout power, there's something--and I can't quite put my finger on it--that usually keeps me from getting excited.  I think it's that my subconscious believes the little guys just don't pack the wallop that the bigger guys do.  Of course, the main eventers tonight would beg to differ.  And they would be right in doing so.

Renan Barao, Jose Aldo, Urijah Faber and Ricardo Lamas are killers.  Give them an opening and they will rip off your head.  Without hesitation.  Then they'll toss it to the crowd.  All of them have shown remarkable finishing instincts and world class skills.  Plus, their gas tanks are bigger than they are!  They can fight full-blast for five rounds and then some.  What's not to like about that?

Let's break down the main card, shall we?

Jamie Varner VS Abel Trujillo

The pay-per-view kicks off with an intriguing match between former WEC 155 pound champion Jamie Varner and young stud Abel Trujillo.  I've seen Varner fight a bunch of times.  He combines solid stand-up with strong wrestling and submission skills.  He is, in every sense of the word, a mixed martial artist.  Abel Trujillo blew me away a few fights back when he defeated Marcus LeVesseur with sternum-crushing knees to the body.  In that fight, he looked unstoppable.  Of course, in his very next fight he ran into the Russian wrecking machine, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and lost a decision.  Of course, Khabib has never lost.  Many think he is a future champion, so Abel shouldn't be graded too harshly from that loss.  He bounced back with a No Contest against Roger Bowling.  The fight was stopped after Abel slammed another one of those murderous knees of his into Roger's head.  Problem was Roger was on the ground when he did it.  That, you see, is against the rules.  Yes, it's a stupid rule, but a rule nonetheless.  They rematched less than two months ago and Abel beat the stuffing out of Roger.

So who wins this one?  Varner is so good and so experienced, it's hard for me to bet against him.  The logical side of my brain says that he will win a decision, but the creative side of my brain still remembers how electrifying Abel looked against LeVesseur and believes he will win a decision.  I'm going with the creative side.

Abel Trujillo by unanimous decision.

John Lineker VS Ali Bagautinov

I'm not going to blow any smoke on this one.  I barely know these two.  I think I've seen Lineker fight twice and I know I've seen Bagautinov fight once.  I don't remember Lineker at all, so that tells you the impression he must have left.  As for Bagautinov, I was impressed with his win against Tim Elliot.  Elliot is a rugged dude who is huge for his division.  Bagautinov straight up out fought him using his speed and timing.  He hit Elliot with some shots that would have crumbled most fighters, but Elliot showed a cast iron jaw.  Regardless, a win over Tim Elliot means something.  For that reason I believe Bagautinov will beat Lineker.

Ali Bagautinov by 3rd round TKO.

Frank Mir VS Alistair Overeem

This fight just doesn't belong on a card ruled by little guys.  Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem are gigantic men.  Frank is the former UFC heavyweight champion.  He has been fighting as a professional since 2001, and has fought the best the division has to offer.  He is arguably the best heavyweight submission artist in the sport.  His arm-breaking efforts against Tim Sylvia and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira are hard to forget.  They're the kind of performances that make a man wince.  But his knockout losses are also hard to forget.  In his 8 losses, he was stopped 7 times.  That's 88 percent.  And if Mir is the most devastating submission artist at heavyweight, Alistair Overeem is arguably the most devastating striker.  Overeem is a K1 World Grand Prix champion.  That's about as good as it gets in kickboxing.  He retired Brock Lesnar with vicious knees and colon-ripping body kicks.  Plus, he's one of the few active fighters who can boast that they've been fighting longer than Mir.  Overeem has been fighting as a pro since 1999.  That's right.  15 years.  And he's only 33.

Both of these guys are coming off losses.  Mir has lost his last 3.  Overeem has lost his last 2.  But Overeem was winning in his last 2 fights before getting caught with big shots.  Mir wasn't.  I like both of these guys and I hate to see either of them lose, but Overeem is a bad match up for Mir.  Unless Mir lands a knockout blow (which he is capable of) or lures Overeem into a jiu-jitsu match, he is in for a long (or short) night.  Overeem's takedown defense is good enough to keep him on his feet if he wishes, and his striking is leagues better than Mir's.  If Mir does get the "Demolition Man" to the ground, Overeem has solid submission skills of his own--maybe enough to neutralize Mir's attacks.

Bottom line, I think Overeem lands some trademark knees to Mir's belly and some thunderous hooks to Mir's face.  This will result in Mir's loss of consciousness.

By the way, do yourself a favor and read this article by Seanbaby at Cracked.com.  The last section has a bit on Overeem that should make you laugh out loud.  If it doesn't, check your pulse because you're probably dead.

Oh, and here is a decent highlight video of Overeem.  Good stuff there, ladies and gentlemen.

Alistair Overeem by 1st round TKO.

Jose Aldo VS Ricardo Lamas

Jose Aldo is an assassin.  And the UFC champion.  He has amassed an incredible highlight reel of knockout victories against some of the best competition at 145 pounds.  To drive home just how good he is, let me list some of the guys he has beaten: Urijah Faber, Frankie Edgar, the Korean Zombie, Mark Hominick, Chad Mendes, Kenny Florian, Mike Thomas Brown, Cub Swanson, Manny Gamburyan and the Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins.  That's like every member of the X-Men.  Plus, he trains regularly with 135 pound champion Renan Barao.  The legendary BJ Penn has recently spent time training with them.  The point is, Aldo has faced the most horrific talents the sport has to offer.  And he has crushed them.  In his entire career, he has only lost one time, and that was 9 years ago!

His opponent, Ricardo Lamas, has looked great in his last 4 fights, and he beat some sheer beasts like Cub Swanson and Eric Koch in the process.  But he has not beaten as many world class level opponents as Aldo, and he has never faced anyone nearly as good as the champion.  Plus, he has been knocked out twice.  That's not a good thing when facing a laser beam striker like Jose Aldo.  I like Ricardo Lamas.  He is an excellent fighter.  But tomorrow night he is going to learn first-hand why Aldo belongs near the top of everyone's pound-for-pound list.

Jose Aldo by 4th round TKO.

Renan Barao VS Urijah Faber

Rematch, baby!

Yup, these two men have already fought one another.  That happened back in July of 2012, and Renan (pronounced Heh' nen) won by unanimous decision.  That fight was, well, weird.  You see, Urijah Faber wasn't supposed to fight Renan Barao.  He was supposed to fight UFC champion Dominic Cruz.  They had just finished coaching against one another on The Ultimate Fighter.  Normally, the coaches fight each other shortly after the season wraps up.  But Cruz suffered an injury that forced him out of the bout.  And who stepped in to take his place?  Rising up-and-comer Renan Barao, of course.

Renan cracked Faber's ribs in the first round.  Faber is as tough as they come, though, and he fought on for five rounds and kept it close.  All the same, Renan was too fast, too long, and too skilled for the California Kid.

I have mixed feelings about Urijah Faber.  For instance, there's a part of me that believes Urijah has received more title shots and press than his in-the-ring accomplishments have merited.  A lot of that is due to his movie star good looks and charisma.  However, another part of me realizes that Urijah is a certified monster in the cage.  He has spent most of his career defending world titles or fighting for them.  When he wasn't, he was knocking off top contenders.  Since losing to Barao, he has looked sensational, going 4-0 and finishing all but one of his opponents.  Plus, he has something now that he didn't have when he faced Barao the first time: Duane "Bang" Ludwig.

For those of you not familiar with him, Duane Ludwig is an old school kickboxer/mixed martial artist turned coach.  At one point, he owned the record for fastest knockout ever in the UFC (he may still have it...).  Anyway, since Ludwig took over head coaching duties at Team Alpha Male, Urijah and his teammates have shown dramatic improvements (with the lone exception being Joseph Benavidez's knockout loss to "Mighty Mouse" Demetrious Johnson).  Faber, especially, has looked better than ever, and that is saying something since he has been at the top of the game--or near the top--for years.

But as good as Faber is, and as good as Team Alpha Male is, Renan Barao and his camp, Nova Uniao, is even better.  Nova Uniao boasts two of the UFC's champions.  No other camp can claim that.  As Joe Rogan (and many others) have said, iron shapes iron.  At Nova Uniao, Renan Barao faces Jose Aldo every day.  BJ Penn flew in to work with the duo.  With that kind of constant honing and polishing, Renan Barao has become one of the sharpest blades in the sport.  Watching him fight is like watching fine poetry.

Except his poetry can kill you.

Renan Barao by Unanimous Decision.


Well, that wraps things up, ladies and gentlemen.  Enjoy the fights.

By the way, do you like short stories?  If so, check out my collection.  It's titled "Big Blue" and is a mix of horror and pulp fiction, available in both paperback and Kindle edition.

Until next time, touch gloves and come out fighting.

--Billy Joe Booth