UFC Fight Night 36: Under Card

I'll be honest.  There's a lot of names on the under card that I'm not familiar with.  Guys who fight in international markets that I don't have easy access to.  For those guys, it doesn't make sense for me to make a fight prediction.  My general rule of thumb is that I have to have seen a man fight before I will make a prediction on whether or not he has what it takes to win.

So that leaves me with a predicament.  You see, of the 22 fighters on the under card, I've only seen 9 of them fight.  Less than half.  So I'll only make a handful of predictions here.  If you've been reading my blogs this week, you know that I am spitting in the eye of popular opinion by predicting that Gegard Mousasi will win a decision over Lyoto Machida.  I think Mousasi's jab, leg kicks, ability to adapt to his opponents and his ability to stay cool under fire will make the difference in a close fight.

Machida, being a fan favorite (and hometown hero), may be gifted an undeserved decision.  Stranger things have happened.  After all, Machida was given a decision win over Shogun Rua in their first fight even though it was pretty clear that Shogun deserved the win.  We shall see.

How about Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza versus Francis Carmont?  This is an interesting fight.  Carmont is HUGE for the middleweight division.  At the weigh ins yesterday, he looked much bigger than Jacare.  Plus, Georges St. Pierre--former pound for pound great and UFC welterweight champion--has dedicated every day of training camp to Carmont.  In other words, Carmont should look better than he ever has, and that's saying something because he looked pretty darned good in his last fight dominating Costas Philippou.

But he's facing a juggernaut.  Jacare is one of the greatest jiu-jitsu competitors of his generation, having won the world championships 5 times--3 at Open Weight!  So he is used to dealing with bigger guys.  Plus, he has a submission victory over Marcelo Garcia, who many consider the greatest jiu-jitsu competitor in history.  He had those skills before he made the transition to mixed martial arts.  Now he has developed a complete skill set.  His striking, for instance, is much better than it was a few years ago.  In his last fight, he blitzed Yushin Okami with punches against the cage.  Not only is he striking accurately, he is striking with a ton of power.

What a frightening proposition: one of the greatest submission fighters on the planet becomes one of the greatest strikers on the planet, too.  Think about that for a moment.  I wouldn't want to face that guy.  Now to be clear, I am not saying that Jacare is one of the greatest strikers in the sport, but I am saying that he has the potential to become one.  And if he does, I'm sure the top ten middleweights won't look forward to facing him, either.

My prediction: Jacare wins by unanimous decision.

Now let's discuss Joe Proctor versus Cristiano Marcello.  Both of these guys are alumni of The Ultimate Fighter.  Neither of them won that tournament, and both of them are coming off losses and long layoffs.  Marcelo will be fighting in front of a home-country crowd in Brazil, so he should be super hyped to perform at his best.  Proctor trains with Joe Lauzon, so he should be well prepared.  I've seen both of these guys fight several times, and Proctor has appeared the more durable, determined fighter.  Because of that, I pick him to win a decision.

My last prediction will be for the Charles Oliveira versus Andy Ogle fight.  Ogle is a hard-nosed British banger who brings a high level of intensity into the cage.  He is yet another alumni of the Ultimate Fighter.  Officially, he has fought 3 times in the UFC, but he lost 2 of those fights.  All 3 fights have gone to a decision.

Charles Oliveira caught my eye when he finished Ultimate Fighter winner Efrain Escudero back in September 2010.  Since then, he has been inconsistent, losing to Cub Swanson, Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone and Frankie Edgar, but getting some respectable wins against another Ultimate Fighter winner, Jonathan Brookins, and Eric Wisely.  Even in his losses, he has shown glimpses of the undefeated fighter who beat Escudero.  Because of that, I think he'll win.  In fact, I think he'll catch Ogle in a submission in round 3.

So that's it, folks.  Fights start in a few hours.  Be sure to tune in and enjoy!

Until next time.